Quote:
Originally Posted by Bignose
So, what is special about Sydney Harbor Bridge? If it were more apt to rain every time 10 days before the Moon-Uranus conjunction, why would the rain just be centered on Sydney Harbor Bridge? Is this pattern world-wide? I ask that last one, since it really seems like it should be. Can you make predictions based on this observation? Finally, what is the statistical probability that this is just chance? Ya know, sometimes patterns just appear even when the data is truly random.
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The only thing special about the Sydney Harbour Bridge, for this purpose, is that Australia’s oldest weather observatory is next to it at Observatory Hill, and that happens to be my data source. My hypothesis implies that this pattern is world-wide, but may emerge differently within the lunar cycles due to interaction with global weather. For southern countries, the pulsing effect of Antarctic fronts could well mean that New Zealand or Chile would experience rain peaks at different points in the cycles.
A prediction just from this observation is that in 2007 Sydney will get three times as much total rain on 23/7, 19/8, 16/9, 13/10, 9/11 and 6/12 combined as on 29/7, 26/8, 22/9, 19/10, 15/11 and 13/12. I do not know if my dataset is big enough to justify this prediction. This will help show if the data is random. The probability of a result greater than 3 standard deviations above average is extremely low. I will check the binomial distribution.