Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert S. Fritzius
Five pandemic related events out of 63 inferior conjunctions would correspond to eight percent, rather than 48 percent.
We're dealing with a small sample size here, but I'd think that if random chance were really involved, we would expect that one or more the start dates would have occurred in the latter half of the 584 day Earth-Venus synodal period. Probability has never been my thing, but I'm pretty sure that the probability that all five events would occur in the first quarter of the synodal period would be, at best, 20 percent.
Help!
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Here are two time series*:
57643
58206
58737
59266
59827
60353
60878
61435
61958
62479
7298.3
7624.1
8113.8
8586.7
9066.6
9629.4
10021.5
10338.2
10744.6
11472.6
Bill Gates, via XL, tells me that they are highly correlated (r
2=0.9954).
Perhaps you could express your 'Venusian influenza' data as two time series? And have Bill Gates tell us what the correlation coefficient is?
That might be a good, concrete, example to start helping you.
Alternatively, you could always go to BAUT's Q&A section, or another website which offers help in probability questions (such as
this one), and ask there. If I may offer some advice, should you choose to do so: remove the context of the data (as I did with the above time series), and ask questions about the numbers (time series, whatever) themselves.
*
source1,
source2