Epsilon--

You just hit on a major problem. If the only motivation to go into space (or anything else) is to "beat" whoever else is at it, then such programs will peter out in short order.

Let me put it this way: when Columbus went west, he did so to gain immediate and personal posession of wealth. It was also to find an alternate route so that Spain could avoid having to cut in every petty king between China and Istanbul on the silk and spice trade (talk about tolls!). Beating the Italians, Portuguese or Dutch was less of an issue. Not even technology was an issue -- the technology needed existed already. Nobody cared about crossing the ocean for its own sake.

Once we beat the Russians to the Moon, there was no reason to do it again and no reason to stay interested. And where will we "beat" the Chinese to? Mars? Beyond that, so what?

The military of any country also has a decidedly poor record for creating self-sustaining colonies in remote places on Earth. Think of the Caribbean -- all those forts are gone. People that live there are doing something else like growing sugar or some other commodity -- as well as tourism (remember the latter is a relatively recent phenomenon). Basically, there was some other reason to be there besides the fort (which might have been put there to protect that very commodity).

You need a more compelling reason, one that is there whether or not the Chinese, or Japanese, or even the Albanians have a space program. I can think of some that are right now politically hard sells because of the way people in the US tend to think of resources and project horizons. But such a reinvigoration of purpose can be done. After all, Cathedrals -- big, expensive public projects --got built for centuries, and there was some pretty cutting edge technology at the time. And you know what? They all became the centers of towns, many if not most of which are still around.

Stephen Baxter, in Time also describes a pretty good way of getting the exploitation of space resources underway, as a private venture. Maybe that's one way to go.

Point is, you need a reason, and the will. After that, the rest will foillow.