Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck
It may be true that most of the people from among everyone who will ever live will be correct in guessing that the human race will become extinct soon, but I have no reason to believe that I'm in that majority because we're not done producing more people.
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The problem with your argument is that it gives a result that even though 90% of humans will be in the last 90% born, by your argument none of them will ever be able to conclude that they are likely to be in the last 90% born, on the simple grounds that they have no way of knowing if we are done producing more people. That doesn't make your argument wrong, it means that it still leaves something to explain.