I will repeat one last time - that is not what the Carter probability is doing. It does not apply probability to multiple values of a specific "M" to estimate total "N." It applies a statistical argument to any one individual. There is no dependence on the value "M" for the argument.

It simply uses the "the plainly obvious statement that 90% of beings live in the last 90% of any set from which they are generically chosen" and combines with our observed exponential growth to arrive at a simple statistical probability that the end is likely near.

If you use no other information, it is a valid statistical estimate. If you think there are other arguments for probable human life existence, that the shape of our population curve will change in the future, or that your specific birth order is somehow special (not generic), then the simple, Carter (no additional knowledge) estimate will not be accurate to the extent you believe your other knowledge is informative and/or likely to be correct.

Audios.