Thread: Solar cycle #24
View Single Post
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 06-January-2008, 06:21 PM
William William is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,080
Default 20th Century Solar Activity Compared to Past

The following is some data that provides a historical comparison of 20th century solar activity to past solar activity.

This paper by Usoskin et al. provides an 11 kyr record of solar activity. See figure 3, which is a graph that shows inferred solar activity for the last 11 kyr.

Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/aa7704-07.pdf

As noted by Usoskin, the solar magnetic activity in the 20th century was the highest in 8,000 years in terms of maximum reached in each cycle and highest in terms of the number of high magnitude cycles. It was also noted that the solar large scale magnetic field increased by 2.3 times in the 20th century, as compared to the 19th century.

Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf

This link shows the number of magnetic storms at the end of solar cycle significantly increased in the 20th century, as compared to the 19th century. (See figure 12.)

http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/earthmag.html#_Toc2075558

Based a simple comparison of past solar activity, it would be expected that there would be a saw tooth return from the 20th century grand maximum solar activity to historic normal solar activity.

There are a couple of papers that predict a move to a solar minimum for solar cycle 24; One prediction based on historical solar activity and the second based on a solar model. In the past, however, it looks as if there was a reduced cycle before the solar minimum.
Reply With Quote