Moderator note: This post was moved from Who is SSRC? And what is Relational Cycle Theory?
Before we discuss further let me remind you that it's job of the laywer to proof his client innocent, not to identify the real offender. If he has done both, but the other suspect turns out to be innoncent too that still means that his client remains innocent.
The Popperian sciencific philosophy works that way. You can proof a theory false but you cannot proof a theory to be true. Consider the 2.5-4.5 degrees of IPCC for 2xCO2 falsified. That doesn't change whether or not Svensmark is right. For instance, we also see it happen right now that both the ENSO (El Nina Southern Oscilation) and the North Atlantic Oscillation have a distinct impact on climate.
Anyway, conversion of incoming radiation energy to temperature is basically ruled by
the Stefan Boltzman law for Black bodies.
E=sigma*T
4
Eath however is more grey body, reflecting part of the energy depending on the reflectivity or "albedo" (A), so perhaps take note of the link to see that the basic energy to temperature conversion is governed by (step 4):
T
e=fourth root of (S*(1-A)/4*sigma))
So variation in albedo (i.g. more or less clouds) is also a considerable factor for the global temperature. Now let's look at
Pallé et al 2006, who wonder if Earth temperature and albedo can increase together.
So look at fig 2, the reconstruction of Earth's albedo from cloud cover compared with the Earth shine on the dark side of the moon. We see a steady decrease of albedo to from 1985 to 1998 and then a slight increase again. That last trend trend seems puzzling to them, according to the question in the title. But they did not realize that the Earth temperature also stopped rising in 1998 and if they had bothered to correlate the albedo graph with some global temperature graph they could have got the uploaded graph to see instead that the temperature correlate nicely with the albedo (r2 = 57.5%).
Now if you put the 10% albedo (around a basic 0.3) variation of that period in that Stefan Bolzman derative, you will see that this results in a basic temperature variation of ~2.7 degrees while the actual fluctuation was more like 0.6 degrees. It's likely the light absorption of the ocean, that has acted as the negative feedback here but that also resulted in the infamous ocean warming.
So we just showed that the temperature - albedo - solar energy variation nicely correlate with it's governing Stefan Boltzman law and that the ocean seem to act as a valuable feedback to moderate the variation effects. That doesn't mean that we understand why the albedo has fluctuated that much but it also shows that we do not need any greenhouse gas to explain what has happened in the last few decades.