The calculations you guys have made seem fine to me, but I wonder whether there isn't another way to look at this. You're finding the probability of such an implausible event in one election, if I well understood. It's quite low, though not astronomically so.

But perhaps it would make more sense to think about the probability of this rare event ever being observed in at least one of the many elections that the average person has lived through. The expected number of such ties increases linearly with the number of elections, which makes the event considerably less unlikely.

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