View Single Post
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 17-February-2008, 06:11 PM
William William is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,081
Default Monthly Mean Surface & Ocean Temperature Anomaly

In reply to orionjim's comment:

Quote:
I would suggest using the Land data only and calculate significance limits to compare to.
Your above comment makes sense, there does, however, seem to be a larger than expected drop in land + ocean temperature, already. This is a summary of the by month land+ocean temperature anomalies. Has the land + ocean temperature anomaly dropped 0.35C?

Monthly Mean Surface Vs Surface & Ocean Temperature Anomaly (C)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.txt

Here are some thoughts, as to why the drop in planetary temperature, might be faster than expected.

1) Tinsley and Yu's cloud modulation mechanism (In response to changes in electroscavenging and GCR) is greatest over the ocean (as the atmosphere over the ocean is ion poor) and over specific regions of the ocean (40 degree to 60 degree latitude). The forcing function is therefore not linear over the entire planet. (i.e. There will more relative cooling, faster relative cooling over specific latitudes of the ocean.)

2) Svensmark stated in his book that to explain past abrupt climate changes that slightly less than 0.6C of the 0.7C 20th century warming would need to be due to solar changes. Using that assumption then roughly 0.6C of the 20th century warming would be due to electroscavenging. The cooling is then 0.6C + 1.2C = 1.8C. Where the 1.2C is due to increased GCR (reduced solar large scale magnetic field and reduced number of sunspots, Dalton like minimum.) and the 0.6C is due to less electroscavenging (reduced solar wind bursts from solar magnetic storms).

The following is my back of the envelope calculation using an assumed cooling of 1.8C with an assumed e folding time for the solar magnetic field of 4 years and an assumed cooling of the top 50m of the ocean of also 4 years. Based on this calculation the ocean land temperature would take until 2011 to drop to 1880 levels. As the ocean + land temperature drop is possibly already -0.35 (A drop of -0.35C should not have occurred until 2009 based on this calculation) this calculation might be too conservative. The prediction of a drop in temperature of -0.8C by 2009 March, might therefore be possible.

Table 2, (Assume -1.8C total change)
2007 0
2009 -0.32
2010 -0.60
2011 -0.84
2012 -1.03
2013 -1.19
2014 -1.32
2015 -1.42
Reply With Quote