I don't know about the time frame or that commercial missions have a better chance of reaching Mars, but the OP's basic premises are sound, IMO.

I see the same thing with nuclear power. We all need electricity, every form of generating it in a big way involves significant (mostly financial) risk and yet plastered over all the walls and PR submissions is "Safety First!".

Uhh, yeah, safety must be a high priority, but I think the point is to send electrons down the wires, not make sure nobody gets hurt doing it. Nobody mentions how 'unsafe' things are during a blackout.

NASA may often proclaim that spaceflight is risky and dangerous and all that, but as stated by Ilya, I think they are loath to say just how dangerous and quantify it in terms of dead astronauts.