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Old 06-March-2008, 06:12 AM
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Originally Posted by AndreasJ View Post
If we're exactly in line now, will we still be in thousands of years? Put another way, how broad would the beam be at 8kly and how does that compare with the relative speeds of the Sun and WR 104?
Interesting question. The angular estimates for a GRB "killer beam" would have an opening angle of perhaps 0.2 radians, so that means the line of danger across the beam at our distance is 1-2 kly. So I don't think the Sun would "leave" the beam in 10-100 thousand years, the issue would instead be if it were in the beam at all. The Sun has only about a half a percent chance of being in the beam of any given GRB, if the opening angle is indeed 0.2 radians.

But WR104 is known to angle generally toward us, so for that system the chances must be a lot higher, maybe in the ballpark of 50/50. So that's the first thing that must be determined. If we're sure we're in the beam direction, and we're sure a GRB would present a danger to life, then we'd be looking at roughly a 1/100,000 chance every year. That's probably comparable to killer asteroid chances (not of widespread extinction, but of a significant environmental threat). So I don't have a good handle on the uncertainties or the threat to Earth of a GRB, but it certainly seems possible that WR104 by itself poses as significant a threat over the next 10-100,000 years as do near-Earth asteroids. I'm not losing sleep over either, but they are both worthy of keeping in mind and monitoring. One should not cry "sensationalized" for this report, but then track issues like will Apophis cause widespread loss of life.
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