07-March-2008, 06:08 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Orion, MI
Posts: 135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimP
What causes our sun to wobble then?
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I think saying the sun wobbles is a correct term; NASA can look at a star and see how much it wobbles and calculate the mass of the planet causing the wobble and by measuring the time of one complete wobble using Kepler’s Laws you can tell how far the planet is from the star.
Hornblower’s gravitational action is probably a better definition of what is happening; but the term wobble is what is used a lot.
Your view of the sunspot data (in my opinion) is not measuring wobble, it is measuring the correlation of Jupiter’s distance from the sun against the number of sunspots “we see” on earth. In that last sentence the difference between your view and my view is what I have in quotes “we see”. The difference is I’m allowing two paths to follow: 1) Jupiter is part of the causal system of sunspots and 2) Jupiter is not part of the causal system but affects our ability to count sunspots. In your OP and other posts you would look only at 1) Jupiter is part of the causal system.
As I explained to Hornblower the high r^2 value you are seeing is coming from the data being averaged twice and the pieces of data being averaged are quite large; this has the effect of really smoothing the data out and again in my opinion tends to rule Jupiter out as part of the causal system. If you were to take only one solar cycle and do your correlation again using a smaller time frame my guess would be the correlation wouldn’t be all that great. If your correlation was high then looking for a cause system would be the thing to do.
Does that mean that your high r^2 number doesn’t mean anything? Not at all; it means that when you remove a lot of noise from the data Jupiter stands out as having some type of effect on how many sunspots we see.
I don’t know if you a familiar with the Maunder Minimum that happened back about 1645, but there was a 70 year period where we had no sunspots (or very few). I am fairly certain Jupiter was still orbiting the sun; but no sunspots. If you study sunspots this is one of the greatest mysteries that really has never been solved. How could it happen?
Using your Alcyone Ephemeris 3.2 software look at where the planets were in the 1640 to 1650 timeframe. If you take the time to do this I think you will begin to see the value of your work.
Now using your Alcyone software look at the planet alignment for 2018 to 2022. Does it look familiar?
NASA’s sunspot expert is Dr. David Hathaway; try Googling:
“nasa hathaway cycle 25” (no quotes)
He is predicting cycle 25 to be one of the weakest in history (history meaning from cycle 1 to cycle 24). Also note he is predicting cycle 24 to be strong; there has been much discussion on this site about cycle 24 being weak, but Hathaway and other solar experts don’t see it that way.
The real question is what is the mechanism behind the weak and strong solar cycles? In my opinion (this is where your data helps) it is the conservation of angular momentum of the planets causing one of the sun’s poles to tilt towards the earth; this affects the number of sunspots we see.
For this to happen the sun and planets have to be a system in the strictest sense and the sun has to work like a gyroscope (the outer spins much faster than the interior).
If you’re not that familiar with actions and reactions of a gyroscope here is a youtube video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCcfKBfmyP4
This movie is about 5 minutes long and the first 3 minutes are pretty boring but at about 3 minutes and 50 seconds in he starts to show how the gyroscope reacts when you apply pressure to the aft gimbal (the outer gimbal). Notice that applying very little pressure causes the spinning pole of the gyroscope to drop. Picture this as the sun and the pole of the sun drops from the top to where the equator was; the sunspots from earth’s view wouldn’t be visible. But even worse since the pole of the sun is facing the earth the sun’s main flow of heat and radiation will not be flowing towards the earth; it’s going to get colder. (Read about the Maunder Minimum).
This can’t happen to the sun can it? Well, the way I read your chart is: yes it can and does! And the thing to remember is Jupiter is only providing 60 percent of our solar systems angular momentum, throw in Saturn and it goes up to 85 percent.
Jim
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