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Old 21-March-2008, 09:50 PM
Robert Tulip Robert Tulip is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
Oh, Gods. Why do I let myself in for this? I know you're going to call this nitpicking.
Gillian,
My claim is that Roman history follows similar patterns to modern western history led by the USA, and that this reveals a scientific cosmic cycle with period 2147 years. Of course modern history has very different factors, not least the scale issue noted by Tusenfem. However, as Aristotle said, each winter is different, but they still follow the same general pattern. By not acknowledging this general pattern of precession you are trying to ignore the substance of my argument with questions analogous to saying that because one winter is colder or snowier than the last therefore the year does not exist. The cycle I am describing is deep and complex, but very much real (unlike the avowedly unscientific claims of Dutch). I acknowledge not all the comparisons I listed are exact, and was quite aware of the date issues you mention, but still claim that within this room for error the continuity with the previous precessional cycle is clear. I have sketched broad periods, and as I noted previously there is much room for refinement and debate, so I welcome your request for further explanation. As I have said, the basic method I am using is scientific, looking at the overall historical shape of events in ancient Rome and seeing how this is replicated 2147 years later.
Quote:
How on Earth do you get the time of "1400-1500AD" for the European discovery of the Americas? There was no discovery for 92 years of that time period. The fourth voyage of Columbus wasn't until 1502. The conquest of the Aztec empire wasn't until 1521. The conquest of the Incan empire wasn't until 1532. In short, you're looking at a 40-year period that starts 92 years after your presumed starting date.
The discovery phase is quite murky; as I noted the Roman claims are shrouded in myth, and beginnings are a gradual process. In this context I suggested the beginnings of discovery of the Americas can be dated to when the Portuguese began to explore the Atlantic in ships in the early 1400s. Your comment about the 1500s is valid and I can see that the date I gave of 650BC=1500AD should be changed to 500BC=1650AD, with the subsequent 300 year period correspondingly shortened.
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The US frontier was considered closed in 1880, when the line between settled and unsettled regions could no longer be drawn clearly. And, as I'm sure you know, World War I didn't start until 1914, and World War II ended in 1945. Further, that whole period was not spend in defensive wars against Germany. Between 1919 and the mid-1930s, there was no reason to assume there would be another defensive war any time soon. Further, the first steps toward war were made when Italy conqured Ethiopia, and the second ones were when 1937. That can hardly be considered a defensive war against Germany.
These are absolutely nitpicky complaints. In this example I have divided time into periods where the basic shape of events was the same in ancient and modern times, so of course there are specific differences. The fact the frontier was “considered” closed does not mean that in actual historical fact it was closed, in terms of a broader understanding of frontier than the narrow legal definition. As well, in this period there wasa broader global frontier process underway with the Scramble for Africa and the settlement of Australia where the frontier was very much alive. And your comments that after Versailles ‘there was no reason to assume there would be another war’ completely misses the point and confuses perceptions with reality. My point is that there are underlying causal drivers of events which occur despite prevailing knowledge and belief. In the period between the Punic Wars (ie roughly analogous to the 1920s) Rome may well have believed it could live at peace with Carthage, but war exploded again in 218BC because the underlying material and cultural drivers of the competition to dominate the Mediterranean were so strong. The same argument can apply to the rise of Hitler, and perhaps Japan and Italy.
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And what makes you think the process of building institutions is over, even 200 years after your alleged date of 1800?
I don't think that. My point was that key Republican institutions such as the American Constitution and system of government were largely established in the period leading up to and soon after Independence in 1776. Of course these have grown and adapted since then, just as did those of Ancient Rome.