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Originally Posted by Cougar
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Here is a snippet from it:
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"On the other end of the spectrum are people who think the whole idea is completely non-scientific, or even anti-scientific. As far as I can tell, their objections generally come in two forms -- either that it's "giving up" to attribute the observed value of a parameter to a selection effect rather than as derivable from the laws of nature, or that all these extra universes are unobservable in principle, therefore shouldn't count as part of a truly scientific description of the world."
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Actually, both of those objections seem irrelevant to me. The problem here is that apparently everybody is imagining that science is something other than what it is! Is there any question that what science is is a prescription for obtaining
demonstrable knowledge about our universe (as opposed to a
warm fuzzy feeling of understanding that is untestable)? So does that not mean that science is about motivating new experiments and organizing the data of existing ones? That just seems perfectly obvious to me. So the problem with speculating about variations in the vacuum energy is not that it is "giving up" on the problem (what demonstrable solution is being given up on there?), and it is not that the other values are known to be inherently unobservable (what other values can we know we can't observe?)-- it is simply that we have not observed them, nor is this approach giving us any clever ideas about how to observe them. That's sufficient, right there, to say it isn't science!
One does not invoke a contrary philosophy to argue against anthropic philosophy, one simply defines what science is and demonstrates that anthropism does not provide any of the proven benefits of science. To me, the crucial point is that the whole reason we invented science was to provide one mode of inquiry into truth that we could actually demonstrate, whose goals were testable and whose primary purpose was not simply to allow us to pretend we know more than we do. The latter is the hallmark of unscientific modes of inquiry-- including anthropic thinking. Why wouldn't Carroll count
that as the main argument against it?
Carroll instead sets up the strawmen and shoots them down thusly:
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"I honestly don't see why either objection makes sense. The fact is, those extra parts of the universe might really be there, whether we can observe them or not. And if they are, it's completely possible that the vacuum energy really does change from place to place, rather than obeying some fundamental formula. To me, science doesn't proceed by first deciding how the world works, and then forcing it to conform; we keep an open mind, and try our best to understand how our actual universe behaves. If our best theories predict that the universe has very different conditions outside our observable patch, and that there is no unique prediction for the vacuum energy, than we have to learn to deal with it, even if those conditions will never be directly observed. The universe doesn't really care how we would like it to behave."
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I must agree that science does not first decide how reality works, and then force it to conform. But I would point out that this is precisely what anthropic thinking does, because it first posits that there has to be a reason that the variables are what they are, and then says the only we reason we can think of is anthropic. Both of those steps involve an unscientific fallacy-- the first is to state that it is part of a scientific principle to say we have to be able to understand something, and the second is to say that the only possibility we can think of is the correct one. Fortunately, real science does not rely on weak natural philosophy like that, it relies on
experiment.
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By the way, I meant to point out to KenG Carroll's remark in the interview linked above where he differentiated between the views of Steven Weinberg and David Deutsch regarding [paraphrasing] the fundamental reason for science.
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The problem here is that Weinberg is clearly wrong, and in just the way that Deutch's "black box" image suggests. But that doesn't make Deutsch right about multiverses as science! Yes, we don't just want predictions, we want understanding. I've always said that, I've said that Occam's razor is the beating heart of science, I've pointed out the inadequacy of "google science" (quite analogous to Deutsch's black box) where we just interpolate every answer from a body of stored existing data. But none of that suggests we need multiverses. The flaw in multiverse "science" has nothing to do with the idea that we only want to make predictions, it has to do with
what we are going to call understanding, and how science can tell when and if we really do understand something.
This is not to suggest that scientific understanding is all that matters, it just says it is all that is
science. I typically find Weinberg (like Dawkins) to be hopelessly positivist (the only truth worth having is the scientific truth, in effect). I did like Deutsch's point about the weakness of "selfish gene" approaches, and I have also asked the question, how do we know a gene wants to survive? Maybe they all crave oblivion, and the ones that don't achieve it are the failures. But I felt there were a few problems with "Deutch's Law:"
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Every problem that is interesting is also soluble.
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The first problem with it is that it would not seem to support his view of science as being forced to look for philosophical explanations. I would challenge him to cite even one single problem, even one, that was ever "solved" by philosophy! To me, his law states that no philosophical questions are interesting, which seems to contradict the way his view on science is being described here. Unless, that is, he will define "solved" as "convinced himself, in the absence of any actual experimental data on the subject".
The other problem with his "law" is, how do we know if a problem is soluble or not? Are there any examples of a problem that was known to be soluble before it was solved? Even one? If not, I claim that the only way we know if a problem is soluble is by solving it. But then the only problems we can know are interesting are ones that are already solved, and an already solved problem is no longer a problem at all. So the intersection of what is known to be interesting, and what is known to be a problem, is the null set using Deutch's Law. That's not a very useful law!