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Old 25-March-2008, 11:08 AM
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Robert Tulip Robert Tulip is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
Do you really not see the contradiction there? If the cycle is exactly 2147 years, it cannot follow a general pattern. The events must be directly analagous. It's not enough to say "stuff happened in this vague 200-year time period"; you must, for example, find an analagous event that happened in 358 BC to compare to the Constitution in 1789. If you cannot, even for that one date, your pattern is seriously damaged. Or at least your chosen comparison is.
Gillian, your comments avoid the astronomical point of my claims. There is in fact a general pattern of what I will call Gaian history with precise cycle period 2147 years. I included a link to a good picture of this Gaian temporal structure at http://www.perceptions.couk.com/precess.html This cycle has been going on since the origin of life on earth with stable structure. And, as explained in my most recent discussion, the 2147 year structure is a physical function of the relation between the outer planets and the sun – the earth is like a gyroscope in the solar system. So, the period is real, and the question is whether there is evidence for it in history. This evidence can range from exact parallels between events such as Zama and Normandy or the Western invasions of Carthage and Baghdad to much broader possible resonances. The point is that the sum of causes of historical events includes this general pattern of terrestrial time. There are some good examples in the USA/Rome comparison and some that are weaker. Because you are disposed to ignore precession as a framework of history, you focus on those I have mentioned that are weaker rather than stronger.

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Nonsense. If it's exact enough to use 2147 as a "cycle," you must be able to be exact and not require room for error. If not, your cycle isn't 2147 years. If enough events fall off your cycle, it should become obvious to you that you don't have one. If the beginnings are "shrouded in myth," isn't it logical to assume that you cannot compare them to anything? That you cannot date anything based on them? Further, Portugese exploration of the Atlantic didn't begin until the mid-1400s, so you're still wrong. The Madeiras, which had been known to the Romans, were rediscovered circa 1420; the Azores were discovered in 1427. At minimum, that still makes you 20 years off; in a more practical sense, since the Portugese were more interested in eastward exploration than westward, it's an invalid part of your "pattern."
Again, this is a misunderstanding. It is analogous to you saying that because snow fell first in November one year and in January the next that the cycle of the year does not exist. Of course we know the year exists. My point is that the precession has equal temporal status to the year as a structure of time. America and Rome often are in fact compared in history, through ideas such as the Pax Romana and the Pax Americana. I am simply taking this as the biggest imperial comparison between ages that exists in our world and asking if we can see parallels with phase 2147 years. In some cases these parallels are precise, in others broad.
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Further nonsense. The reason the frontier was declared closed was that there was nowhere to draw the line between "settled" and "unsettled." Further, if you are comparing the US to Rome, wider global events cannot enter into it. The US was isolationist, for the most part, for most of that time. Even during the Spanish-American War, it wasn't so much settling as conquering. Few Americans moved to Guam. But to compare the "Scramble for Africa," participated in solely by the European powers, to actual Roman expansion would then mean that we could compare Mayan civilization to Rome.
America-Rome is just an example. Of course there are likely to be other parallels and the basic reason for this thread is to develop an understanding of wider world causal processes against a cosmic context. I pick on America and Rome because they have a cultural continuity and have major stark dates as world powers. The greater the cultural distance between two powers the less the causal connection. As I mentioned, the modern parallels I am noting are between the West and Ancient Rome, with some examples drawn from the USA and others from the UK and Europe. The whole modern West, unlike the Mayans, is joined to Rome by language, law, history, blood, religion, etc. Even so, there may well be deeper connections which link different parts of the world. I only raise this in response to your mention of the Mayans, who really had no direct institutional link to the USA by comparison with Rome. An example of a cross-continent comparison of the sort you seem to be asking for might well be that drawn by a respondent between Buddha and Calvin. Both codified a world folk religion, with Buddha refining Hinduism into Buddhism and Calvin refining Catholicism into Protestantism. However, as I said in response to the criticism of the comparison of Plato and Kant, I think it is easier to see the cycle of precession operating at world-historical than at individual level.
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Make up your mind--just the US or a broader world perspective? If it's a broader world perspective, shall we start throwing in significant moments in Zulu or Chinese or Incan history? During the 1920s, Germany couldn't afford to make war on anybody. You are still ignoring that, even assuming Europe is somehow included in your US comparison, that there was no defensive war against Germany until 1914. If you are not including Europe, there was never a defensive war against Germany. Only Japan launched a full-scale attack against the US, and it's doubtful they could have managed an invasion. One way or another, your claim of a fifty-year "defensive war against Germany" is bogus.
Broader world. And this is about millennial cycles which could well have decades variance in their return. You are welcome to look for connections between unconnected cultures, but I think these are less likely than between the US and Rome. With the Germany-Carthage comparison, my point is that at the same stage in both their history, having cleared the neighbourhood, the US and Rome went to war to defeat a counter-hegemon. The parallels include the broad multi-decade phase I have called ‘defensive war’ and specifics such as 202BC=1945 and 146BC=2001AD.
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How long is "soon after"? What "key Republican institutions" (you want a lowercase "r" there) are you referring to? Have you perhaps not considered the sheer number of Cabinet positions added since 1789? George W. Bush's Cabinet contains eleven positions that George Washington's did not.
See above.