Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken G
1) a micro black hole can be created (an unknown claim, yet is cited at "10 percent likelihood" somehow)
2) even though most such black holes will move at near c (a point you have yet to acknowledge, interestingly, as it is was the core of one of your arguments), every now and then you might have one at less than 11 km/s, and get caught in the Earth's gravity (no estimates made of how likely that would be, only that the vastly more numerous cosmic ray events don't count because they are not having head-on collisions with other similarly energetic particles)
3) if that happens, "chaos theory" magically tells us it will accrete the Earth in 50 months, not 50 million years as in other estimates of this process.
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Even if it was 50 million years, that would reduce the Earths life expectancy by 99% (down from 5 billion years). We may not make it anywhere near that long, but why would you take any chance, it you can know whether this experiment will really be safe in probably a few more years of study.
fyi:
My research [of existing published sources] indicates a risk of up to 10% of a single MBH being captured by Earth’s gravity per month of LHC operation. Supporting assumptions and estimates: CERN states that microscopic black holes might be created at a rate of one per second (
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/LHC/Safety-en.html,
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columni...imension_N.htm). Assuming that that CERN’s prediction is correct, [experimental physicist Greg Landsberg at Brown University in Providence, R.I.] Charles Q. Choi of LiveScience estimated in 2004 that 10 million microscopic black holes could be created by LHC (Large Hadron Collider) in a year and 1 in a million would be captured by Earth’s gravity if Hawking Radiation fails to cause the MBHs to evaporate (
http://www.livescience.com/environme...ack_holes.html). James Blodgett published survey results from 15 physicists estimating odds between 0% and 50% that Hawking Radiation would fail, with an average estimate of 9.9% for failure (
http://www.lhcconcerns.com). However [Greg Landsberg] Charles Q. Choi of LiveScience also estimated that a single stable microscopic black hole would grow so slowly that it would not be a threat to Earth, though other physicists estimate much faster growth patterns. --Jtankers (talk) 22:10, 8 March 2008 (UTC)