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Originally Posted by 3rdvogon
No I do not have hard facts either way and to suggest that one scenario is more probable than any other given the available evidence is wishful thinking.
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"Wishful thinking" or simply optimistic / pessimistic viewpoints?
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You are so fond of throwing about the "Copernican Principle" as it comes up so many times in your posts though I doubt its real relevance to this debate.
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The copernican principle (or more pertinent to the ETH, mediocrity principle) is entirely relevant to how we perceive ourselves and our planet in this universe.
And so you know, antithetical to the mediocrity principle is rare earth hypothesis.
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As I have said before in other posts all we can say is "WE JUST DON'T KNOW YET". To simply suggest that intelligent life must be common or that we have to be the only intelligent life in the Galaxy is to overstate the either case. We cannot produce probability estimates based on the limited data we currently have and that is the end of it until we know more.
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I agree we don't know yet and have never said otherwise.