Quote:
Originally Posted by Swift
No, I'm not biting. I really don't know what you are asking or what your point is.
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Everybody here agrees that the LHC is not 100.000 ...% safe, because literally nothing is excluded by the laws of quantum mechanics. But the probability that a burrito will fart out a mBH due to a random quantum fluctuation--while not technically exactly zero, it is stupid, indeed crazy to worry about such low probabilities.
On the other hand, there are small probabilities--like the odds of winning the Powerball--that are tiny, but not negligible, as evidenced by the fact that we actually buy the occasional lottery ticket. Now, frankly, I think that the probability that the LHC will blowup is quite a bit more likely than winning the lottery. The booster's on the other hand, think the probability is much lower than winning the lottery. So, all I'm asking is for them to quantify what they think the probability of a blowup is. You tell me what is wrong with quantification?
Well, it would put you on the spot. You would have to defend your quantification. I've defended mine--and surprise, surprise, no one has attacked my own attempt at quantification.
Or to put it more strongly, once you quantify your probability, the booster argument is dead. I think you people realize that. You know in your heart of hearts because of your acquaintance with the history of science and the rude surprises that have happened in the past that the probability that the LHC will destroy planet Earth is in fact
much greater than the probability that the universe will wink out of existence due to a random quantum fluctuation. And you know that to do as
Drunk Vegan did, and choose a probability of 10
-241 by just hitting the "0" button until your finger hurts can be easily shown to be a handwave--as he himself demonstrated by editing those zeros out of his post.
And I've asked repeatedly for people to quantify how much they think planet Earth is worth. And again, not one person has bothered. Perhaps because that for our practical purposes, the value has to be treated as infinite? Oh they say it's because they basically don't respect me, and so it's not worth the bother. And then they accuse me of having "decided that the world is doomed if the LHC goes online and will defend that premise in the face of all science, math and reason." Which is a total copout--and basically amounts to surrender on the part of the boosters.
Because I have provided argument after fresh, original argument, and presented reasoned responses to every point the boosters have made. And I'm the one who won't listen to reason. You've got it wrong folks. I have chosen to think for myself. You are all projecting.
Not one of you has said that you thought it was prudent that they put the lunar astronauts in quarantine despite what the laws of biology say.
Not one of you has admitted to being surprised when it was announced that the universe's expansion is accelerating rather than decelerating.
Not one of you has commented on my point that the extrapolation of the semiclassical approximation to multi-dimensional mBH's deep within the quantum gravitational regime is not in fact necessitated by the laws of physics as we now know them, but is in fact based on nothing but mere plausibility, it is not the worst case scenario, and was thus apparently cherry picked to make the safety report come out right.
And I have said what would make me think that the LHC was safe: just run one beam at a time. Frankly, I don't think it's a good idea to be creating mBH's anywhere on Earth, but if you're going to do it at all, at least do it in such a manner that the mBH's will
probably be kicked out of the Earth's gravitational field. And if by using single-beam colliders, they can eventually experimentally prove that the 5th and 6th dimensions do not in fact exist, and that it is both theoretically proven and experimentally totally confirmed that mBH's cannot ever be produced in a collider, then I would say go ahead and run both beams. But to do that right now, given the current state of the art, it is not prudent.
And so I will not be shouted down. I don't write for you anymore. I write for the lurkers, that they may know that it is OK to doubt the authorities, because the emperor wears no clothes.