In reply to nauthiz’s comments:
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Originally Posted by William View Post:
I provided a link to Douglas et al’s 2007 paper that shows mid troposphere temperatures in the tropics have not warmed in the last 40 years.
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Originally Posted by nauthiz View Post: Is this the same paper that people keep mentioning has already been sent to the dustbin by new data, more diligent research, and considerable criticism of their statistical methods?
(ETA: Their earlier paper went over like a brick, too. Notice how they're caught out basically cooking the data.)
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The general climate models all predict the mid-troposphere will warm more than the earth’s surface due to GHG. Douglass et al’s 2005 and 2007 paper’s data and analysis shows the mid-troposphere temperature in the tropics has not warmed as predicted by the general climate models.
Some assert that 40 years of radiosonde data (weather balloons) and 15 years of satellite data must be incorrect. The Realclimate summary does not state Douglass et al’s data is “cooked” or that Douglass et al’s analysis is incorrect. Douglass et al’s 2007 paper presents a statistical validation of the data they used in their 2005 paper. The problem is not cooking of data, but rather accepting the conclusions of Douglass et al’s analysis that the magnitude of GHG warming estimated for a doubling of CO2 is too large by a factor of around 3.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ropopshere-ii/
If you read through the discussion, there is a second problem identified with the general climatic models, prediction versa measurement: The satellite data shows in addition to the tropical mid-troposphere not warming as predicted by the general climate models, the data indicates the stratosphere has cooled significantly more than predicted by the general climate models.
The papers quoted by Realclimate suggest that if 15 years of satellite data and 40 years of weather balloon data were both biased - Biased to measuring temperature too low - then there would be no disagreement with the atmospheric temperature data and the general climate models. (i.e. Blame the data rather than the general climate models.) There is no assertion in the papers quoted in Realclimate or in the comments in that forum that Douglass et al “cooked” their data.
Another explanation is the 20th century warming was caused by a reduction in planetary clouds, rather than GHG. Less planetary cloud will result in less sunlight reflected into space. The stratosphere contains ozone which absorbs short wave radiation. As all of the short wave radiation is not absorbed first pass through the stratosphere, the cloud reflected short wave radiation has a second chance to warm the stratosphere.
Nauthiz I have in the above comments provided links to paleo climate papers that shows there was in the last 100 kyrs 27 abrupt short periods of planetary warming. The 27 past abrupt planetary warming periods, which in all cases, were followed by abrupt cooling, were not caused by GHG changes.
Do you support that assertion?
As noted above the solar magnetic cycle in the 20th century was at its highest level in 8000 years.
I provided a link that shows the planet’s albedo decreased in the later part of the 20th century which is consistent with satellite data that shows there was a decrease in planetary clouds. The analysis included in Palle’s earthshine albedo paper shows the reduction in planetary clouds is equivalent to a forcing of 7.5 W/m^2 as compared to the GHG forcing of 2.5 W/m^2.
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Originally Posted by nauthiz View Post:
Why do you keep citing that paper?
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If there was only one paper, one author, perhaps we could question the author, the data, and the analysis.
What is provided above, however, is a holistic set of data and analysis from a set of published papers by a large group of authors from different specialities, that appears to disprove the magnitude of the GHG warming predicted for a doubling of C02 and that appears to answer the question what mechanism forces the glacial/interglacial cycle.
Forcing of Doubling CO2? Positive or negative Feedbacks?