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Old 23-August-2004, 06:50 PM
Irishman Irishman is offline
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Accepted that the scenario described does not match an actual Russian plan. Hypothetically, they attempt a combined robotic landing with a manned orbiter and a Lunar Orbit Rendezvous with the sample return vehicle. Could they have done it? Could they have claimed a manned landing? Given the existing hardware (assuming it worked) but not necessarily retaining the defined flight profile/timeline.

The ability to have done it depends on the N1 booster working. They had serious issues getting it going. But somehow they get into Earth orbit their Lunar mission soyuz, plus their crew. What about the robotic landing and sample return to Lunar Orbit? Given that they did accomplish a robotic sample return eventually, this is acceptable. Could they have done it in time? Assume they did.

Lunar Orbit Rendezvous? We did it. There is no a priori restriction on the Soviets from doing it. I'm not familiar with the Zond - how controllable to orbit versus return trajectory. We have to assume the Russians would have worked out their rendezvous by then - they would need it for the first part, getting the crew in the Soyuz from the N1. That leaves the question of just how much lunar samples they could actually have returned this way. Any more than the robotics directly?

Okay, so it is within the realm of capability given their hardware, if it had functioned. Big hurdle, but assumed. They pull off the mission, and try to claim they landed.

Was their a lander on their vehicle? I know a lander was in works, but if it wasn't complete that's a big tell. They lie and fly a mockup or incomplete shell.

What about pictures? They don't have any lunar TV, photos, etc. Why not? They might argue they were there for science, not propoganda (Ha!).

Radio tracking - we would be able to track both vehicles to the moon and in orbit. We would be able to track the lander. British astronomers used a radiotelescope at Jodrell Bank to track Apollo 11 land, plotting the velocity profile all the way to the ground. They would have been able to do the same for the Soviets. So would the U.S. Then you would track the liftoff and rendezvous. They must explain the use of two vehicles, and the fact of which one is in orbit and which landed. Could they find a way to confuse the matter by crossing their paths? Performing pre-touchdown rendezvous? Could they argue the orbiter was a communications relay or orbital mapper, something they needed to gather data from to bring back to justify the rendezvous? (-vouses?)

Communications. Trying to relay from the lander to the orbiter and back to use the crew for live conversations from the moon would be difficult. They would need to explain the frequent conversation breaks as the Soyuz went behind the lunar bulk and lost contact but the crew was supposed to be in sight. Okay, argue they're using the orbiter as a communication link. That way, the orbiter being out of sight is a legitimate excuse for no contact during those periods. Add an internal signal delay to simulate relay from the orbiter to lunar surface and back, to prevent timing tripups (oops, Yuri, you spoke too soon!) Okay, now explain why you need an orbital relay that inherently breaks comm when they are on the lunar surface in sight of Earth? I know, land on the far side. It's brilliant! It explains the comm lag and need for an orbital relay, and it stands out as even more creative!

Okay, we have a lunar orbit rendezvous to confuse the tracking, landing on far side to justify the comm breaks and need for orbiting "comm relay", Lunar orbit rendezvous post liftoff (to get the samples)... why? Pick up pictures from the orbiter (conveniently taken by the crew while they are supposed to be on the surface).

Okay, next!
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