Well, if the universe were contracting, we would see local galaxies, within 50 million LY say would be blue shifted at a higher contracting velocity. Galaxies 10 billion LY away would be contracting at a slower pace than the local galaxies. So astronomers would consider the possibility that the more distant galaxies are seen just after they have begun to fall back and local galaxies are seen in more recent times after they have had time to contract and pick-up speed.
Just my 2 cents.
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