=D>

It all makes sense. I'd even go so far as saying that what the US government does at this point is irrelevant-- the private space industry is going to surpass NASA’s manned LEO programs in the mid-future. After all, if Bigelow’s contest works out, there will be private manned sub-orbital craft several years ahead of NASA’s CEV plans.

That isn’t to say NASA shouldn’t have a role—there are common infrastructure issues to solve (ie communications, etc), and the government has its own interests in space (ie defense). Plus, NASA is impressively innovative; it is mostly the bulk of bureaucracy and political meddling that holds it back. Put someone like Jack Welch in charge, give him the power to make real changes, and we’ll be getting somewhere.

I must temper my enthusiasm though; there is still a big gap between sub-orbital flight and LEO. I still only give 50:50 odds that somebody will even win Bigelow’s contest—he has set the bar really high with the rendezvous/docking requirement. Government over-regulation is also a non-trivial risk. It is hard enough for a conventional airline to be profitable.

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Do try not to take me too seriously.