Now--posturing. Mainland China may, just may, be able to get troops across the water but sustaining them would be beyond their current capabilites, IMHO.

Later--say 20 years from now, if the status quo hasn't changed dramatically, then it might be a real possibility.

And it could happen today if Taiwan was to declare Independence, the Mainland Government might feel that it has no choice but to invade or look weak and foolish, especially to it's population.

A war there makes no sense economically or politically to any of the possible involved parties (China, Taiwan, US, Japan), but then again, when has War ever made much sense?

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