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Originally Posted by farmerjumperdon
Agreed. Taiwan would be a prelude to a China conflict the way slavery was a prelude to the U.S Civil War. It really wasn't the cause, just one of the hot-point manifestations of the debate over states rights that was never settled after the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
As China's economy grows, and hence as their influence on all issues worldwide grows, the issue of recource allocation is going to be forced. And almost all wars are about resources nowadays. China will get what they need, or they will get more and more pushy, and more and more difficult to deal with peacefully.
The noise they are making about Taiwan is positioning. Positioning on all sides is taking place all the time. If it is positioning that has suddenly become more prominent, or is getting a lot more attention, then THAT is significant. If you've read any of my long-winded rants on previous threads, then you might remember my prediction that China will become the next great superpower. They will get a turn at the top next. That much seems pretty certain given their growing economy and the momentum their population will create. History proves nobody stays on top forever. Not believing that is just a manifestation of ego- and ethno-centrism.
With China on deck, the real question is: Who's in the hole?
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I agree with your analysis but not with your conclusion. China PRC
wants to be the next big superpower, but I don't think it will happen. I know there is the old hypothesis about world empires blooming from east to west and that China may be next, but I don't agree with it. I think China had a chance to emerge as a world power long ago and did so in their region but limited their ambitions for one reason or another. Therefore I feel the hypothesis or prophesy will not hold.
More to the point, I think that the world is at such a point now that there can not be another bipolar split (cold-ware style) or the emergence of a new superpower. We wouldn't be fighting for hearts and minds or over vast unexplored and unexploited resources like in the cold war. We'd be fighting for real possession of more limited resources. Heck, all this posturing over Taiwan may be a diversion for a future incursion into Siberia. Some people are making comparisons to WWI... ok, but think of it as WWI with nukes. There might not be much left to be a superpower over afterwards.
Maybe after a nuclear war there will be a power vacuum that China PRC can move into, but right now there isn't. The entire globe is administered and there is no room for expansion. There are no weak governments to expand into which are not either inconsequential or bulwarked by more powerful allies.
For all its problems, I think the world might prefer the US as an economic superpower. People immigrate to the US in search of opportunity and freedom. Does anyone think this paradigm would hold true for a Chinese Superpower? How many mexicans will China allow into their society to work low paying jobs so they can send that money home to Mexico? How many Poles or Nigerians will China allow in? None, I suspect. The rest of the world has a vested interest in preventing or restricting Chinese dominance and hegemony. China PRC knows this and they feel beset on all sides by enemies. I do not envy their position. They cannot succeed and will not, without some great international tragedy. I think they will only reach global dominance through global thermonuclear war. And I suspect that whatever is left of China will be almost unrecognizable from it's current government.
I think there may be one chance to prevent that conflict if we establish a new international system, but China would and will only ever reach a parity, but not a rivalry, with the dominant powers. Any other path leads to misery.