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Originally Posted by Ken G
I don't agree. The point is, anyone who makes the Carter argument will always come to the conclusion that the end is fairly near.
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That's right. And Carter says that some of them will be wrong, and most of them will be right, the exact ratio depending on the confidence interval chosen.
So the fact that people were wrong in the past doesn't make it any more or less likely that we are wrong now. They're independent coin tosses of a heavily weighted coin.
Grant Hutchison