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Originally Posted by Gullible Jones
Okay, I'll put things very simply and bluntly:
From a point in the history of any civilization, you can't predict with any accuracy how long that civilization will last. Period.
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Ah, the
Argument from Repeated Protestations of Increasing Loudness. One of my favourites.
Sorry. Couldn't resist. Just teasing.
Seriously: Carter's argument would say that your NEO is just the sort of catastrophe needed to explain our apparent location near the End of Days. And that the billion-year civilization is of course possible ... just unlikely, given how close to the start of it all we find ourselves.
Grant Hutchison