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Originally Posted by Fram
And what is the chance that every generation of humans belonged to that 5 percent instead of the 95 percent? Well, that must be way smaller than the 5 % chance that we will be a long living species.
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No, the low probabilities don't multiply as you're suggesting.
Each new generation has a new piece of information (their own existence) and therefore redoes the calculation, coming up with a new 5% and 95% confidence interval.
Grant Hutchison