Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ken G
The lemmings problem can be rectified by using the Carter reasoning on the number that will likely yet live, rather than on the time the species will remain.
|
I don't think so. Carter requires that any life is as likely as any other life to be sampled. Since we take a random snapshot of our lemmings in time, we're as likely to sample a bulge with lots of lemmings as a trough with few lemmings; but a random lemming life is
more likely to sample a bulge than a trough. So we can't sample the population in a "lemming-life" way without knowing how it's distributed in time - but if we know that, we don't need Carter.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ken G
But I reiterate, knowing what we know about species here on Earth, it would be silly to not try and do better than the estimate that comes from the Carter reasoning from zero information (which goes back to Fram's initial post).
|
I completely agree that Carter is best undermined by examining his simple assumption, rather than his simple reasoning. Simple assumptions are very often wrong, whereas simple reasoning is very often right. Nevertheless, it's my experience that people are often convinced there's a flaw in his reasoning, if they just pick away at it for long enough.
Grant Hutchison