I see. Yes, I think a lot of the problems in this thread involved invoking analogies to help understand the point, but the point is so delicate that analogies are not likely to work! I think it's more important to get away from the informationless Carter argument and into areas where we can actually assess, and possibly alter, our survival chances. For example, I'd say that natural catastrophe is no longer a serious issue, as it would probably take a major extinction event to wipe out humanity, and those happen on timescales of tens of millions of years. But humanity's technological development is happening on timescales that are up to a million times shorter! So it is clear that our survival depends entirely on our responsible use of our own technological advancements. No timescales embedded in human history are relevant at all any more, nor is the Carter argument, because in point of fact our fate is in our own hands now.