I can't access the clip, so can't tell you about the likelihood of the incident occurring or the damage to the tail, however, I can tell you that there is indeed an emergency landing site in South Africa. There is a list of them here:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/...ty/sts-els.htm

As for getting the shuttle back, I imagine they would do it the same way they bring it back to the cape from a landing at Edwards Air Force Base: piggy-back it on a modified 747.

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"The very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common: They don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views." The Doctor, Doctor Who: The Face of Evil.