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Originally Posted by MarkBB
There is one huge flaw in the Pearl Harbour conspiracy theories, the choice of target.
In 1941 the Battleship was still considered, excepting a few mavericks, by everyone, including the Japanese, as queen of the oceans, invulnerable to anything except another BB or a submarine. As of late 1941 no operational BB had been sunk by air power alone whilst at sea, and although Taranto had shown the way for a Pearl Harbour attack, the shallow water & heavy defenses at Pearl were thought to be more than enough deterrent.
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I think wargames had shown that an attack on Pearl could be successful, however the US Military (as well as the British in the Far East) completely underestimated their opponent. It was thought, when Yamamoto's fleet set off, that they were heading south, since the Japanese would be incapable of launching an attack across the Pacific against Hawaii. This was one of the reasons Hawaii was not on alert, even though they should have been.
For the Japanese, the attack was nowhere near as successful as they thought (or as had first seemed)...2 of the battleships were on their way to the West Coast USA to be repaired before the year was out, and only the Arizona didn't get back into service. And, of course, most of the trained crew were still around. Admittedly, that is hardly a case for consipracy since it still left the US short of BBs for the best part of a year.