Well, I've said it before and I'm willing to repeat it, although last time people on this board spontaneously started calling me names....

In 45 years, in my very humble opinion, there will be no manned spaceflight. At all. But I do believe we will walk on Mars before that. Purely for psychological reasons. You know what they say about Mnt. Everest? You have to climb it, just because it is there. Mars is our next Everest. After that, the next mountain would be a planet around another star. And that is forever out of reach, so... manned spaceflight becomes pointless.

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