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Originally Posted by antoniseb
Hi gaetano, You website does a lot of handwaving, but doesn't really state the issues in clear numerical terms. For example, you discuss that a new rocket and CEV will have many parts that might fail, and then compare the shuttle favorably to this. I have the impression that the shuttle is much more complex than the new system.
Bear in mind, I'm not an advocate of the new system either, but the two ideas you seem to be arguing for are an improved reusable shuttle, or a giant old fashioned Saturn V like rocket.
I didn't think your position was especially clear.
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It's impossible to give "numbers" about the CLV, etc. because...
1. the CLV and CaLV design news from NASA change every day
2. the real rockets don't exist and will be available only in 2011 (CLV) and 2017 (CaLV)
3. the most important parameter to evaluate the risk of missions' fail is the reliability of the rockets and that number will be available only after many real flights
I agree with you that the Shuttle is more complex than a rocket
The problem is not the "fail of the rocket" but the "fail of the mission"
The CLV may work well and safe after lift-off, but, like near all rockets and launches, may have some delays due to sensors' alarms, problems, defective parts to change (like the ECO and SSME in to-day's Discovery), weather, launch windows, etc. (don't forget that in 2018 the two rockets will still be largely "experimental")
If the "sum of delays" exceed the "max orbital life" of the EDS/LSAM the entire mission will fail, because there is no reasons to launch the CEV/CLV if the EDS/LSAM can't work well (and safely for the astronauts)
With an SLV that can't happen not even with a 10 months of delays!
About the Shuttle... I'm not favorable to the present model (that is too old and dangerous to fly with crew and can be used only to fly
CREWLESS) but to a new, little, safer and cheaper Shuttle that may use the Shuttles' experience and to-day's best technology (of course, the new Shuttle will be used only for cheap LEO flights)