Numbers... who knows the real ESAS/VSE "numbers"?

NASA changes the "definitive" ESAS "numbers" every day... and the most important REAL numbers (like rockets' reliability) will be available ONLY when the rockets will fly.

The two most important numbers of a manned mission are the "Loss Of Crew" and the "Loss Of Mission".

About LOC... I've seen many figures about different LOC with different (new) rocket's configurations (and... of course... the safest CLV is the model that NASA & contractors have decided to build...) but ALL these numbers are a nonsense.

I don't know which rocket may be safer (little or big, solid or liquid engine, etc.) but I know (and you know) that (as I explain in my article) the life of the astronauts don't depends from the LOC of the rocket but from the reliability of the LAS.

If the LAS will be really fast and very reliable the life of the astronauts will be safe WHATEVER will be the rocket under the capsule, also an old Redstone!!!

I think that the LAS will be fast and reliable (1 in 500 or more), then, the life of the astronauts will be safe with (both) a big or a little rocket.

For the success of the missions the most important parameter is the LOM, but no one can know now (not even NASA) the real LOM of two (or one) rockets that will exists and fly after 2015.

But we don't need to wait 10+ years because we can use our LOGIC.

It's clear that TWO rockets may fail a mission if there will be too much delays of the second launch, while the "single launch" can wait months or years before the launch without any LOM.

Of course, also the SLV may fail but ONLY if will happen BIG technical problems like with Columbia and Challenger and NEVER for a "sum of (simple and stupid) delays that happen (to-day, in the past and in the future) every day with every rocket's launch.