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Originally Posted by gaetanomarano
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Originally Posted by Bob B.
Gaetanomarano, I just think you’re getting all worked up over something that is very unlikely to happen.
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Unfortunately I think that may happen (and will happen).
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How many manned launches have been scrubbed within 24-hours of the planned launch time that resulted in a subsequent delay of over one-month? I think you’ll find very few, if any. By the final hours of a countdown the vehicle has already gone through extensive check-out. The types of faults that occur during this time seem to result in delays of hours or days, not weeks or months. I suspect the LSAM/EDS will not launch until the CEV is well within its countdown and all systems are go. I think the chances of a long delay between LSAM/EDS launch and CEV launch is not unacceptably high. Could it happen as you suggest? Of course, but I think you’re over dramatizing the risk.
One possible and simple solution to the problem is to launch the CEV first. If the LSAM/EDS launch is scrubbed, then you bring the crew back down. The CEV is reusable and launched on a much smaller and less expensive rocket. If the mission is aborted after CEV launch, the amount of cost squandered is considerably less than if a CaLV/LSAM/EDS is wasted.