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Originally Posted by Bob B.
NASA should therefore have a considerable amount of launch experience with the CLV/CEV before the start of the lunar missions. I’m not sure this is something gaetanomarano has taken into consideration in making his pessimistic assessment of the 1.5 launch architecture.
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you are too optimist about the CEV and its use for ISS because:
- due to the changes in its design (5-seg., etc.) and other possible delays I don't think that an orbital-CEV will fly before 2014-2015
- in 2015 the orbital-CEV will be only one of many crew vehicles available for the ISS (Digital-Soyuz, Shenzhou, Kliper or a new russian vehicle)
- the ISS' crew will remain of 3 for great part of its time
- since the ISS is international, only 1/3 of the crew will be american (and many times will fly with the Soyuz, like to-day)
- Europe, Russia and China can't spend $200+ million per seat for the CEV (and don't want to spend it, since one Soyuz-seat costs $20M)
the sum of these points is that an orbital-CEV will fly only for the crew rotation of american astronauts, then, in 2014-2018 (when the moon missions begin), the CEV will (probably) fly 3-5 times max, not a great amount of launch experience
consider also, that, a big launch experience, don't means to avoid all problems and delays (see the 25y. experience of the Shuttle...)
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