Just walking backward, and looking at some choices the players would have to make:

-If it is your turn, and there are one two or three left, you have won.
-If it is your turn and there are exactly four left, you have lost.
-If it is your turn and there are five, six, or seven left, you can win, by leaving your opponent with four.
-If it is your turn, and there are exactly eight left, you have lost (against a smart opponent).
-If it is your turn and there are nine, ten, or eleven left, you can win by leaving your opponent with exactly eight.

With a random starting number, the first player wins 75% of the time.

__________________
Forming opinions as we speak