you're right, after the Shuttle retirement, the cargo-return capability will be near ZERO

Progress, ATV and H-II are all send-only-cargos that, at the end of missions, burn in the atmosphere with the ISS' trash

the unpressurized cargo-CEV was deleted from ESAS plan in january, and the pressurized cargo-CEV (I think) will be NEVER used since it is (simply) a "CEV without astronauts" so, it's launch cost will be close to a manned CEV: $400M official price per launch ...but the REAL costs (at 2014 prices and with shared Ares/CEV R&D costs) may reach $1B per launch!

also, the 5mt. cargo-CEV can send only 3 mT to the ISS (20% more one Progress launch at 1/40th the price!) and the payload bring back to earth (probably less than 3 mT since it can't exceed the astronauts + life support weight) will cost from $300M to $500M PER mT!!!

last, a capsule is too little to send big ISS hardware and experiments that need to come back to earth

and we can't hope in the Kliper because... 1. it may never born, and... 2. it's max cargo-payload is planned around 0.5 mT (or, maybe, 2 mT without the astronauts)

with so many cargo and crew vehicles available in the next ten years, the ISS will be able to host up to six astronauts with all the foods, water and life support they need, but WITHOUT big experiments that needs the results to come back earth for research

the ONLY way to have an heavy cargo-return capability after 2010 (without risks for astronauts) is to modify the Shuttles to fly 100% CREWLESS [ http://www.gaetanomarano.it/spaceShu...ceshuttle.html ] with a mix of automated and remote controlled operations

WITHOUT THE (manned or unmanned) SHUTTLES THE $100B+ ISS WILL BE ONLY A VERY EXPENSIVE SPACE-HOTEL FOR A FEW PRIVILEGED NASA & ESA ASTRONAUTS + SOME SPACE-TOURISTS LAUNCHED BY "RUSSIA-SPACELINES"... NO "EXPERIMENTS"... NO "SCIENCE"

but I give you another (VERY GOOD) reason to save the Shuttle:

last month an orbital debris was very close (only 240 mt.) to hit the ISS

well, just imagine that, in future (2013, 2017, 2022) a big orbital debris will be in the same trajectory of the ISS...

WITH the (manned or remote-controlled) Shuttle (and its robotarm) will be possible to move the big debris to another orbit (or bring it back to earth) while, WITHOUT the Shuttle, the ISS' astronauts may come back to earth with a rescue-Soyuz or CEV but the $100+ BILLION ISS (the ONLY space station we have!) will be seriously damaged or completely destroyed!!!

with a few crewless Shuttles' missions will be possible to move ALL the dangerous debrises that runs too close to the ISS' min/max orbital range, so (both) the $100B ISS and the astronauts' life will be 100% SAFE without any "last-minute" astronauts' rescue!

about "satellite-retrieving" I think it's a very expensive job and may exceed the cost to (simply) send a new satellite

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