Here is the US Geological Survey's take on full moons, tides, and volcanoes. They don't completely dismiss it, but seem to say it is at most a minor effect.
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Although this is a fascinating correlation, there are just too many tidal maximums and too many volcanoes to base predictions on tidal cycle alone. In the Hawai'i example of 52 eruptions since January 1832, there have been nearly 3,900 tidal maximums, of which roughly 3,850 of them went by without causing an eruption. Statistically, this is about a one percent chance that any tidal maximum will affect the start of an eruption.
The correlation is more important as a clue to how volcanoes work. The effect of the tides suggests that a volcano can remain in a state of near eruption for a period of time before some threshold is exceeded and an eruption starts. There are probably many possible mechanisms for exceeding that threshold - the lunar tides are but one.
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Here is a National Geographic article about it. It mostly talks about a study of the Stromboli volcanoe in Italy.
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The team's task was to determine when the greatest peaks in eruption activity occurred, and what connection the increased activity might have with the moon's gravitational pull. Following the patterns they had seen in the past, the O'Mearas predicted that during the volcano's ongoing eruptions, there would be peaks in volcanic activity at perigee and at full moon. In this case, events bore out that hypothesis and in fact the greatest spike in volcanic activity occurred at a point in time just between full moon and perigee.
As exciting as the O'Mearas' investigations may be, Steve cautions that they cannot be considered independently of other volcanic variables. "We're not saying that by simply following the moon we can predict when a volcano will erupt," he notes. He does, however, advocate including the moon in the equation for predicting eruptions, with other more traditional variables.
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Again, it sounds like a minor variable. What is also interesting is that the peak is not at the full moon.