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Originally Posted by ClarksonN
Is that all you want from a planet?
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Well, that's how OP phrased the question, and by his criteria I answered "2012-2015". I certainly
want to see something significantly more Earth-like.
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What about rocks that are sufficiently protected from debris by a gas giant?
That have plate tectonics?
That are out of significant cosmic ray danger?
Not everyone subscribes to the need for these and other criteria, but for me the main reason for finding an earth like planet, is that it is sufficiently earth-like to inhabit (even if we never get there).
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Given your criteria, I too think 2020+ is much more likely.