I watched (and taped... I may replay it later) the PAX show. It seemed the BA got short-changed some, but I'm prejudiced.

Two quick points:

1) Let's say that Rocketdyne really did calculate the chances of success at 0.0017% in 1959. So what? These are engineers we're talking about. Tell an engineer a problem is almost impossible to solve and all you do is get his juices flowing. The only problems really worth solving are the "impossible" kind.

And, that was 1959. The thing about technology is that it improves over time. (Idle query, what were the odds of successful powered flight in 1893?)

2) Any decent metallurgist or geologist knows all about melt processes and the factors that influence them. Trying to make a "moon rock" in an oven on earth is absurd. Believing it can be done simply illustrates a lack of knowledge of the subject.

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Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
Isaac Asimov