I repost my august 2006 post adding a new comment at the end:

I think that this new "race" (please don't attack me on this word) is completely different because the purpose of the new moon missions is different

the '60s space-race was a cold-war military race...

the "message" of Russia with Sputnik, etc. was "attention, if we can do that you must have fear of us, then, don't try to invade our country"

the "answer" of USA with Apollo was "since we can do more than you, don't try to invade our country with you communism"

now the "race" still exists, it's only different, it's a commercial and industrial race (and with more partecipants)

with the ESAS plan USA want to say to the world "we still are the number one in this job"

while Russia and/or China try to "win" the race to say to the world "we are the new (industrial, political, technological) number one power of the world"

now Russia and China have a low-profile (since they are not sure to win...) but the space (to-day like in the past) is not only a game for engineers and scientists

also, this time, win the race is not important to land first (since USA has already done it with Apollo) but to build the infrastructures to be the future most important country in space, the most important on the moon, the first will land on Mars, the first in revenue and profits from space business (that will be 99% in LEO, not on the moon, not before 30+ years from now)

the world is not made of superpowers but (great part) of small countries

well, I don't think will be easy for China to win the new race, but... just imagine they land on the moon before USA... just imagine the different number of people from Apollo (4+ billions in 2015-2020) that will see the China's ships and astronauts on the moon with bright, hi-res, 3D images on the TV screens of all small countries' politics and peoples

they may think that "if China is on the moon (while NASA still tests the Ares-I...) the new #1 world power is China", then, politics of small countries may think to ask China 1st on the most important world problems, not the (new) #2

if the purpose is "land on the moon" there is no race (USA has already done that) but if the purpose will be different (like "show to the world to still be the #1 economic/political/technological power of this century") land on the moon 3+ years after China will make a GIANT difference!!!

also, don't forget that the new moon missions will be made to develop, build and test the infrastructures and the technologies for the "next steps" (colonies, mars missions, etc.)

3/5 years of delays will give to other countries a GIANT advantages on "future steps" in space, including the first Mars landing

do you really think that american politics, military, prestige and public opinion may accept to see a team of chinese doing "bye bye" from the moon on four billions TVs, two billions computers and thousands megascreens around the world while NASA starts testing the AresV 1st stage???
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