Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Romanus
Yes, China is booming at a phenomenal rate, but it's GDP remains far below that of the U.S. or most of the E.U.
|
According to the
CIA World Factbook, China had a USD GDP of 10 trillion, in 2006, as measured in real purchasing power; meanwhile growth of GDP is 10% per year. Compare to the
U.S.: 13 trillion USD GDP, but growth rate of only 3.4%. I could say do the math yourself. Never mind. I did it. According to my spreadsheet, China and the U.S. will have approximately equal GDP's in 2010. By 2011, China will have a significantly higher GDP than the U.S. I had heard around that 2014 would be the year, so it's worse than I thought.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Romanus
Yes, China has a powerful land-based army and lots of nukes, but their navy and air force are weak. Yes, China can zap satellites out of orbit, but that doesn't mean they're going to pick a fight with us if it's not in their interest to do so--any more than we would, for that matter. Furthermore, at first blush it looks like China's foreign policy is much less aggressive than the Soviets' was, with little interest beyond their immediate borders; aside from Tibet and Taiwan, I don't think we're going to hear much about China fomenting revolution or toppling distant governments to get a leg up around the world.
|
U.S. spends 4.06% of GDP on military; China 4.3%. Those are comparable amounts. Remember, a dollar spent in China will go ten times further than a dollar spent in the U.S. And who is China gearing up for? Vietnam? I don't think so.
That their air force and navy are not up to the task of beating the U.S. is even now debatable. There was their submarine that successfully stalked a battle group and had an aircraft carrier in their crosshairs. Granted, the sub would have never made it out alive, but the carrier would have been split in two. 6,000 casualties in 5 minutes! They also have hypersonic Sunburn cruise missiles that could effectively neutralize American sea power, at least close to their home waters.
Imagine the following scenario: in ten years, China invades Taiwan, the U.S. lets them, because they can't really stop them, but it does cut off the maritime flow of oil from the Middle East and Africa, and American airplanes destroy the few pipelines that also feed China. Then China launches its huge land army through Afghanistan, with the collusion of Iran, and then straight on through to Saudi Arabia. Problem is, U.S. can no longer maintain air superiority. They steal American ideas as fast as Americans invent them, yet they keep their own ideas close to their chests. They are thus bound eventually get ahead of the U.S. in some military technologies, and assymetric tactics will neutralize whatever technological advantages the U.S. still possesses.
It could be that control of the Moon is tantamount to control over Earth and therefore over the solar system. Mass drivers on the Moon itself could take out any Earthen satelite. Nuke missiles could give third strike capability that even subs can't provide these days.
Thus, an interesting quote from the factbook re: U.S. intentions toward Antarctica: "US has made no territorial claim in Antarctica (but has reserved the right to do so) and does not recognize the claims of any other states."
So, why not do that to the Moon? U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the Space Treaty, and then claims the Moon as sovereign territory. Crazy, of course. But really, what would stop China from doing the same if they get to the Moon next?