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Originally Posted by BigJim
Argos, I disagree with you in every way possible. Could you please list some specific reasons as to why you think so?
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Bigjim, I was referring to the article ToSeek linked. The so-called Complexity Index.
This makes me wonder if we’ll ever put humans on Mars. The Aerospace Corporation Complexity Index dooms the mission to failure. It would be a genocide case we should attempt today.
What IŽm trying to say here is that a manned Mars mission is far more complex than the sending of probes. The probability of failure is directly proportional to the CI and inversely proportional to the budget available, according to the study of the AC. The combination of high complexity and low budget, typical of the current days, paves the way for a resounding failure. A whole lot of money must be inverted to keep the hazard close to something acceptable. ThatŽs what I meant with “genocide” (a rather strong word, I agree). If you sent men to Mars now, youŽd probably be sending them to death. Remember that the CI puts the Mars Rovers – considered of high complexity - in the failure zone. They are practically failed by anticipation.
When I consider the mass to be conveyed to Mars in a manned mission - a couple of tons I imagine – I also think of the means available: machines that were conceived centuries ago and which were little improved in the last 70 years.
Rockets changed little since Goddard times. The proof is the struggle to send the small Beagle 2. If you were to send a four-people crew, with each astronaut weighing 80 kilos, youŽd have 320 kilos. Supposing that each one will modestly consume 1 kilo of nutrients (food + water) per day during a 3-year trip, weŽd have 1 ton of mass to be conveyed for each astronaut, making up 4 tons, only for basic life support. All this mass would have to be conveyed even if we intended to use local resources after arriving there. IŽm not considering safety margins. If you add fuel and miscellaneous material, youŽll end up with several tons. I really canŽt see how to make it. The plans that include combos like two or three Saturn V only increase the complexity, therefore the risk.
We have reached the limit of physical displacement of humans. Men canŽt go farther than 1 million km from Earth with the means available. WeŽd better roll up the sleeves and start working on relevant technology.