Well Bad Astronomer, I'm predicting that a - - Page 10

SciFi Chick · #**271** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

Okay, since you want to argue, debate, argue, debate, maybe you can tell ME what this fireball is, which goes back to my original posts.
I have no desire to meditate any further on such a tragic event, or add any more to this Pandora's box, but I will wait and see.

Several people have tried to tell you what the "fireball" could be. You have not responded in any way other than to refine your predictions or say you don't have time to read the whole thread.

What more do you want?

N C More · #**272** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 02:38 PM

Actually, I posted a link to a very informative site about "fireballs". The ball is in Jasmine's court...it's impossible for us to know specifically what she saw in her vision. It's up to her to make the identification.

Quote:

Originally Posted by N C More

Here's a site that might help Jasmine to nail down exactly what sort of a "fireball" she's talking about.

In a couple of days such speculation will become irrelevant. BTW, discussion from all points of view is what generally happens on a "discussion" BB.

R.A.F. · #**273** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maksutov

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

Is this debatecentral.com?

Of course it is. In the real, rational world, that's how things are sorted out, how conjecture is separated from science, how fact is separated from fiction. As R.A.F. quotes in his signature, ""The facts, gentlemen, and nothing but the facts, for careful eyes are narrowly watching"...Isaac Asimov"

hey, you "quoted" my signature...that is so cool!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maksutov

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

And that July 13 is the height of the meteor showers.

Height of what meteor showers? July is a very inactive month for meteor showers.

Well, she DID say that she didn't know that much about astronomy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maksutov

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

Do you mean this rocket is going to be flying right over my property around 3:20 a.m PST?

Only if you consider 175 miles to the west of where you are to be "directly overhead".

After looking at the ground track in the link provided by skepicED56, it looks like that particular rocket stands a better chance of hitting the North Pole, than it has of hitting anything in the US. So, all I can say is look out, Santa!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maksutov

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

Isn't that lovely, given their track record. I guess it's a little late for additional fire insurance, isn't it?

What is the track record to which you are referring? Who is the "they" in "their"?

I agree! And this is something that's fairly easy to "check out".
So, Jasmine, provide us with information stating that this "particular" launch vehicle is prone to "accidents".

Gullible Jones · #**274** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klausnh

It's a "what if" scenario, so it doesn't matter if anything really happens on Tuesday.

Hey, Klausnh, you quoted the wrong person!

What I actually said, in response to someone else's question:

Quote:

If there is someone living in LV who chooses not to leave LV on July 13th because of this thread, and something catastrophic does happen, would the debunkers here feel responsible. if that Las Vegan dies?

That won't happen, because what Jasmine speaks of is simply not possible, unless I have seriously misinterpreted it.

It's not just a "what if" scenario, it's completely impossible, barring incredibly unlikely coincidence.

Edit: Klausnh, I was responding to you!

Also: less than one day... tick-tock, tick-tock... (I ain't holding my breath.)

R.A.F. · #**275** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R.A.F.

hey, you "quoted" my signature...that is so cool!!

I was going to change my signature, but after you "quoted it", Maksutov, I decided to just add to it.

russ_watters · #**276** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 03:42 PM

Quick question for you, Jasmine: are there any circumstances under which you would concede to being wrong in your prediction? If so, please be specific. For example, if there happens to be a large fireball over Australia on Thursday , will you concede you were wrong or claim you were close (and therefore right)?

R.A.F. · #**277** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 03:50 PM

Hmmm, How many casinos are located in Australia??

#**278** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:04 PM

Hmm? =D>

milli360 · #**279** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soupdragon2

Quote:

Originally Posted by milli360

Quote:

soupdragon2:
Ironically, Jasmine's theory is scientific because it's falsifiable.

Just because something is falsifiable, does not mean that it is scientific. OTOH, the converse is sometimes said to be true, if a theory is scientific, then it is falsifiable, but not everybody necessarily agrees with that.

That's becuase a lot of scientifc theories are not falsifiable.

You have some examples in mind?

soupdragon2 · #**280** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milli360

Quote:

Originally Posted by soupdragon2

Quote:

Originally Posted by milli360

Quote:

soupdragon2:
Ironically, Jasmine's theory is scientific because it's falsifiable.

Just because something is falsifiable, does not mean that it is scientific. OTOH, the converse is sometimes said to be true, if a theory is scientific, then it is falsifiable, but not everybody necessarily agrees with that.

That's becuase a lot of scientifc theories are not falsifiable.

You have some examples in mind?

How long have you got? But let's save it for another thread, eh. We're getting in the way of good gambling opportunities here!

Maksutov · #**281** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:34 PM

Wagers, ladies and gentlemen.

Windows close at...well, let's see...

Windows tend close when they feel like it...

8)

tofu · #**282** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soupdragon2

That's becuase a lot of scientifc theories are not falsifiable.

Soup, you seem to be on a quest to take apart the big bang. Unfortunately for you, the BB is falsifiable. Sure, it looks like most galaxies are moving away from us, but some are coming towards us too. If I made a database of every galaxy's redshift and somehow determined that from some particular point of view there were *more* galaxies approaching than receding, that'd pretty much disprove the big bang. It would disprove it because that situation isn't possible under BB theory.

Klausnh · #**283** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gullible Jones

Edit: Klausnh, I was responding to you!

I fixed the quote.

ops:

Gullible Jones · #**284** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:01 PM

Thanks. And sorry if I seemed a bit brusque.

BTW, everyone makes mistakes... That one was not the worst by a long shot.

soupdragon2 · #**285** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tofu

Soup, you seem to be on a quest to take apart the big bang. Unfortunately for you, the BB is falsifiable.

See the relevant thread re. Falsifiability, and I'm much too late to explode the Big Bang. John Kiernon and Jerry Jensen got their first.

soupdragon2 · #**286** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:05 PM

Oh, dear. I have made some enquiries with online bookies, to which I have rec'd this response!

Quote:

Hi ***** (soupdragon20

Im not aware of anyone who does stuff that specific as basically any bookmaker would need to check into this before they could offer odds, and alarm bells on inside info would immediately ring based on the specifics of your enquiry.

I have family in Vegas - what do you know?

Antony

Gullible Jones · #**287** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:05 PM

Jerry Jenson has not yet falsified the BB. And I haven't seen John Kiernon do anything yet...

milli360 · #**288** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:08 PM

you better be careful, soup, Homeland Security has no sense of humor

soupdragon2 · #**289** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gullible Jones

Jerry Jenson has not yet falsified the BB. And I haven't seen John Kiernon do anything yet...

Gullible, if the BB is not falsifiable, then strictly speaking it cannot be falsified!

You might argue, nonetheless, that it has been largely discredited. Take it up on the relevant thread.

soupdragon2 · #**290** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milli360

you better be careful, soup, Homeland Security has no sense of humor

Hmmm. Good point. And no doubt Tony Blair would have no problem with them jumping on a plane and knocking on my door!

Gullible Jones · #**291** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soupdragon2

Gullible, if the BB is not falsifiable, then strictly speaking it cannot be falsified?

*Groan*

Soup, I never said that the BB is not falsifiable. I said that it just hasn't been falsified yet.

Quote:

You might argue, nonetheless, that it has been largely discredited. Take it up on the relevant thread.

It hasn't been largely discredited. It could be disproven at some point, but it has not been disproven yet.

Quote:

Hmmm. Good point. And no doubt Tony Blair would have no problem with them jumping on a plane and knocking on my door!

No, he wouldn't, but I can't go there on this board...

Captain Kidd · #**292** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:31 PM

Hey guys, debate the BB elsewhere, I for one would like to keep this thread open for continuity's sake for follow up.

Not that I'm expecting anything to happen, but still, a prediction was made, we have a date and time; so let's just wait and see. Maybe sans some of more colorful opinions/statements, this thread is kinda verifying the claims that others outside the BABB are making about us being a bunch of rude jerks to new people showing up with various claims/ideas. And I'd rather not give evidence for a GLPer to point to and and say, "see, told ya you weren't different from us."

//Kidd

milli360 · #**293** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Captain Kidd:
Not that I'm expecting anything to happen, but still, a prediction was made, we have a date and time;

I forget, what is the date and time?

Quote:

Jasmine, in the OP, wrote:
A large ball of fire (appears to be a meteor) is going to hit the inland west coast soon, around the area of Las Vegas, and cause a huge explosion.
Did you hear about the large fire balls (meteors) seen from the sky over Texas last night during the meteor showers?
The height of the meteor showers is on July 13, correct? That's the day I'm predicting. If not then, it's looking to be soon after.

Gullible Jones · #**294** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:39 PM

3:20 AM, IIRC.

soupdragon2 · #**295** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:41 PM

I just had to reassure an online betting agent about the silliness of these claims.

He was worried that I might work for NASA or something like that.

Gullible Jones · #**296** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:42 PM

You gotta be kidding, Soup.

Lurker · #**297** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jasmine

Okay, since you want to argue, debate, argue, debate, maybe you can tell ME what this fireball is, which goes back to my original posts.
I have no desire to meditate any further on such a tragic event, or add any more to this Pandora's box, but I will wait and see.

So... it is now about 9:45 pacific time Monday morning here in beautiful San Francisco...
What I want to know, Jasmine, is if you will be here tomorrow morning at oh... say about 8:30 am pacific time to discuss your prediction?? I am sure that either way we will have many... many... things of interest to discuss.

milli360 · #**298** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 05:56 PM

Thanks. And I notice Jasmine mentioned PST, instead of PDT.

Quote:

Klausnh:
If there is someone living in LV who chooses not to leave LV on July 13th because of this thread, and something catastrophic does happen, would the debunkers here feel responsible. if that Las Vegan dies?

A similar question:

What if Gelsemium were to post on the BABB, and claim that someone was going to be shot in New York City on the 10th? Would anyone feel responsible if someone actually did get shot in New York City on the 10th--even if that person was a member of the BABB, and decided not to leave town just because of what they read on this board? We'd be extremely upset, but I don't think responsible, by any stretch of the imagination.

What if a hundred people decided to leave town on the 10th, and two of them got in traffic accidents and one was killed? Would Gelsemium be responsible?

Klausnh · #**299** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milli360

A similar question:

What if Gelsemium were to post on the BABB, and claim that someone was going to be shot in New York City on the 10th? Would anyone feel responsible if someone actually did get shot in New York City on the 10th--even if that person was a member of the BABB, and decided not to leave town just because of what they read on this board? We'd be extremely upset, but I don't think responsible, by any stretch of the imagination.

What if a hundred people decided to leave town on the 10th, and two of them got in traffic accidents and one was killed? Would Gelsemium be responsible?

I don't think a board member, Gelsemium, Jasmine or any debunker would in any way be responsible. We all have the ability to obtain and evaluate information and choose our actions. The responsibilty lies on the individual who makes the decision.

milli360 · #**300** (**permalink**) 12-July-2004, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Klausnh:
I don't think a board member, Gelsemium, Jasmine or any debunker would in any way be responsible. We all have the ability to obtain and evaluate information and choose our actions. The responsibilty lies on the individual who makes the decision.

I was under the impression that you were suggesting that the debunkers might be responsible, but here we have the shoe on the other foot.

You are aware that if someone shouts fire in a crowded movie theater, for instance, they can be held responsible?

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