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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:06 AM
soupdragon2 soupdragon2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi
I think falsifiability, in a scientific context, is a very simple issue. I would like to know what you think it is please, since you keep making, what appear to me, to be incoorect assumptions about it.
Relatively simple in scientific terms, but not so simple in philosophical terms, and this, of course, is a fine example of where the subjects overlap.

I make no assumptions in this regard, you better believe me!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Normandy6644
So let's hear what you have.
There is no rush mate, at least not as far as I am concerned. Things are hotting up nicely. :wink:
  #32 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:24 AM
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Ever hear me mention the "soup two-step?" .. you just saw it :wink:
  #33 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:26 AM
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I have read the above posts, and I fail to see where I have failed to grasp either the predictions of dark matter and energy, or the concept of falsifiability.

Also, there have been a lot of trolls around lately, and my patience for dancing around issues is quickly being consumed. So instead of playing games, I strongly urge you to directly make your point.
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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:31 AM
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Soupdragon, can you please give me your definition of Scientific Falsifiability?
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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Archer17
Ever hear me mention the "soup two-step?" .. you just saw it :wink:
Well done Archer17, this is one of your more civilised posts. Keep it up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The BA
Also, there have been a lot of trolls around lately, and my patience for dancing around issues is quickly being consumed. So instead of playing games, I strongly urge you to directly make your point.
Let me assure you, I am not playing games, and I trust you are not inferring that I am a Troll? But it's late here in the London, and I'm off to bed now. Apologies for the delay, but I'll be back (If I'm not banned in the meantime)!

BTW, I'm flattered that you have deigned to challenge me directly. Jerry Jensen laid down a challenge, as I recall, in relation to the Big Bang, a subject on which I am sure you are much stronger. As far as I am aware, he is yet to enjoy a a similar rejoinder.

Tally Ho!
  #36 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupdragon2
...the BA, a fine astronomer, hasn't quite grasped it. See above.
You make a lot of blanket assertions without any supporting explanation, not to mention evidence! If you just like to "heat things up", that makes you an internet troll. Internet trolls are despicable. Is it your objective to be despicable?

Both dark matter and dark energy are falsifiable, as the BA has clarified. But there are indeed some popular (scientific?) speculations whose falsifiability is not readily apparent. As previously mentioned, the idea of "parallel universes" would not seem to be falsifiable, since we can never detect anything outside of our own universe. As Gell-Mann points out, "even if such theoretical speculations are shown to be without foundation, the notion of multiple, largely independent universes still provides a nice (if rather abstract) way of thinking about probabilities in quantum cosmology." The "parallel universe" idea probably derives from Hugh Everett's "many worlds" hypothesis, which Gell-Mann indicates is largely misunderstood. The idea is that there are not actually many universes, but the idea of "alternative histories of the universe" is useful in quantum theory. In depth discussion on this is found in Gell-Mann's The Quark and the Jaguar.
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  #37 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 12:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupdragon2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archer17
Ever hear me mention the "soup two-step?" .. you just saw it :wink:
Well done Archer17, this is one of your more civilised posts. Keep it up.
Besides an unnecessary reference to my behavior and a lot of words, what have you really said? You still haven't answered a simple question.. I rest my case.
  #38 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 01:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupdragon2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archer17
Ever hear me mention the "soup two-step?" .. you just saw it :wink:
Well done Archer17, this is one of your more civilised posts. Keep it up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The BA
Also, there have been a lot of trolls around lately, and my patience for dancing around issues is quickly being consumed. So instead of playing games, I strongly urge you to directly make your point.
Let me assure you, I am not playing games, and I trust you are not inferring that I am a Troll? But it's late here in the London, and I'm off to bed now. Apologies for the delay, but I'll be back (If I'm not banned in the meantime)!

BTW, I'm flattered that you have deigned to challenge me directly. Jerry Jensen laid down a challenge, as I recall, in relation to the Big Bang, a subject on which I am sure you are much stronger. As far as I am aware, he is yet to enjoy a a similar rejoinder.

Tally Ho!
Again, your famous two-step. You managed to take two seperate posts that referred to you both directly and indirectly and managed to escape without commiting yourself.

All we want from you in the context of this thread is your defintion of Falsifiability.

While most of us don't consider you a troll, you are getting dangerously close to that line. You make wild accusations, fail to provide more than one or two easily disproved examples and said that the BA, despite having a PhD and a decade of scientific experience cannot fully grasp this concept. All that I might add, without saying "why" or answering the simple question of what you think falsifiability means.

Why do you expect answers to your questions when you can't answer the question that forms the basis of your arguement?

[/i][/u]
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  #39 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 01:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musashi
Soupdragon, can you please give me your definition of Scientific Falsifiability?
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  #40 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 01:33 AM
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After seeing you putting it off for so long I'll put my request in soupdragon.

Answer the question, how do you define falsifiability?

To not answer the question in your next post will simply falsify the theory that you are a serious debater. :^o
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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 01:49 AM
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Here is the post that makes me doubt SD knows what falsification is:

Quote:
Originally Posted by soupdragon2
Quote:
Originally Posted by BAroxMysox
Proof would be 100% undeniable...
Well done. You have just contradicted the theory of falsification, a stalwart of science.
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 01:55 AM
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Ok, I'm taking a guess here and soupdragon can correct me if I'm wrong, but after reading soupdragon's posts and thinking about his "belief system" thread, it might be that soupdragon has decided that rather than get into a quagmire over his philosophical definition of falsifiable that he will accept the scientific definition of falsifiable - once somebody offers it - for the purposes of moving forward with his argument that a lot of scientific theories are not falsifiable.

At least that guess would be consistent with this statement:

Quote:
soupdragon: Trouble is Musashi, it's not a straight forward philosophical issue.
and this:

Quote:
soupdragon: Relatively simple in scientific terms, but not so simple in philosophical terms, and this, of course, is a fine example of where the subjects overlap.

I make no assumptions in this regard, you better believe me!
And his original question was what do scientists mean when they say scientific theories are falsifiable. Perhaps he'd rather just work with our scientific definitions then his philosophical ones in this discussion? In that case if he offers his definition the discussion would get dragged way off from where he's trying to go if we start arguing with his definition.
  #43 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 02:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SciFi Chick
beskeptical - My understanding of the god question is that you have to be outside of a system in order to test it, and there's no way to get outside the universe - and that is presumably where the god/gods/goddess/goddesses reside if he/she/they/it in fact created matter.
I know that is the standard explanation. For other universes and before the BB it is currently true. But we have scientific studies of many things we cannot measure directly. That doesn't mean we can't ask a scientific question about those things through indirect means. For religion, can you say there is no Pele, the volcano goddess of Hawaii? Of course you can. The idea you can never prove it one way or the other, to me, is just a rhetorical way of dancing around a sticky subject. With the correct choice of criteria, we can test the 'theory' of a god just as we can test the theory of quantum mechanics.
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 02:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry Jensen
Quote:
Originally Posted by beskeptical
I bring this up to ask, what is it that can't be falsified? .
One often hears that man first learned how to use fire by observing lighting strikes and/or tinkering around volcanoes. As trivial as it sounds, this statement cannot be tested or verified and is scientifically irrelevant. It should not be included in scientific texts without emphasizing the point that this is speculation or hypothesis, not a supportable theory.
But suppose an isolated tribe were discovered that did have current history as to how they discovered fire. Unless or until such a tribe is discovered, we have to be satisfied that the hypothesis cannot currently be tested, but a scientific hypothesis is possible.

Like I said, my ignorance of science may be showing here. But then again, maybe my ignorance of science is allowing a different perspective on falsifiability. ...oohh, I'd better be careful, that sounds like the manic phase of omnipotence... 8-[
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 02:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russ_watters
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry Jensen
Quote:
Originally Posted by beskeptical
I bring this up to ask, what is it that can't be falsified? .
One often hears that man first learned how to use fire by observing lighting strikes and/or tinkering around volcanoes. As trivial as it sounds, this statement cannot be tested or verified and is scientifically irrelevant. It should not be included in scientific texts without emphasizing the point that this is speculation or hypothesis, not a supportable theory.
Not a bad example, but I'd need to see a specific instance of that to say if you are right or wrong. All that's needed are the words "scientists speculate that...." and the problem disappears.
All that is needed is the criteria to measure the outcome by.
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 02:57 AM
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Default Re: Falsifiability

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard J. Hanak
The idea of falsification in science is attributed to philosopher Sir Karl Raimund Popper. He accepted that unrestricted generalizations could not be verified. However, he called to our attention that they could be falsified.

Scientific theories make claims about expected observations. For example, suppose someone claims that at distances beyond 5 billion light-years all galaxies are red shifted. Although no amount of observation of such galaxies can verify that claim, one properly authenticated observation of a blue shifted galaxy in that distance range would falsify the claim.

According to Popper, falsifiability is the hallmark of science. No scientific theory is ever conclusively verified, no matter how often its predictions come true. And as most of us know, scientific theories are very prone to revision.
Well, now we get to the crux of the matter. But this makes me even more confused. I have a hard time with the 'no theory ever' part.

OK, I found dear Mr. Popper without too much trouble. Now I have to read it like a good little science learner. I'll be back.
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 03:21 AM
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From Mr Popper himself, (see link above).
Quote:
These considerations led me in the winter of 1919-20 to conclusions which I may now reformulate as follows.

(1) It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory-if we look for confirmations.

(2) Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions;that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory-an event which would have refuted the theory.

(3) Every "good" scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.
(4) A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is nonscientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of theory (as people often think) but a vice.

(5) Every genuine testof a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability; some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation, than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.

(6) Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of agenuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of"corroborating evidence.")

(7) Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers-for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by re-interpreting theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a "conventionalist twist" or a "conventionaliststratagem. ")

One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.
I think I've been following these guidelines in my thought process. I notice first that the discussion by Popper is re theory, not just process. That clears it up a bit for me in that regard. Second, his summary of falsifiability includes both refutability and testibility. I take his point to mean testing a theory needs to include some criteria that gives a more vigorous answer than all tests might give. And, finally, I don't see falsifiability as defining all aspects of what is and what isn't scientific, because science has more parts to it than theory. I myself deal with a lot of the more basic stuff...risk benefit of vaccines based on evidence...stuff like that.

Well, I shall await other comments on the above and go read another link that google turned up when I put in 'falsifiability and science', "The Case Against God: Science and the Falsifiability Question in Theology". Hmmm.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 03:40 AM
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Default Re: "a lot of scientifc theories are not falsifiable&am

Quote:
Originally Posted by milli360
In the meantime, let's start the listing. And the bickering.
Perhaps a comparison of the BB with evolution is useful: Darwin's original thesis contained seven primary concepts, three of which have been falsified and four which have been modified, but remain basically unchanged and unchallenged.

The original incarnation of the BB has certainly been falseified: Without inflation or a similar epic the universe is much too big. I personally argue the reintroducton of the 'cosmological constant' is an admission the Einstein deSitter mathematical formula is no longer consistent with observations, but to most astrophysicists this is a reasonable modification.

The observational data have continually boistered the remaining arguments of evolution. Every time we peer further into the cosmos, the BB has to be tweaked with new parameters. Is the Big Bang a success or a very stubborn failure?
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 13-July-2004, 03:43 AM
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