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Google search of for example "a s t r o l o g y" yields 7,610,000 hits, but I don't think that I should take a s t r o l o g y more seriously because of that. (Spaces in that word are for preventing the targeted ads).
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"Stupidity gets denser in a crowd" - Old Finnish saying. [My website and My BLOG] [Nimblebrain forums] |
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Hubble observed spectral redshifting generally increasing with distance which was interpreted to be the result of expansion. Rather than concern yourself with my personal self-evaluation, why not provide a cogent argument that I am wrong. If Berkeley et al that you cited have not overstated the case, then surely you can provide the evidence that expansion is a direct observation rather than an interpretation. |
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Suppose, for argument's sake, that CMBR would have been found in 1928 when static universe was preferred model of the universe. By that time, redshift-distance relation wasn't established yet, but there already was a prediction of blackbody temperature of space by Eddington. He predicted 3.18K. (But this was the temperature of interstellar space, not intergalactic space. When he made that prediction, the existence of galaxies outside Milky Way was not yet established.) So in that time, the CMBR would have seemed to be fitting quite nicely to static universe. Quote:
But let's try another search that is more fair, and this one is also more related to cosmology. I get 257,000 hits for "book of genesis". For comparison, I now get 144,000 hits for "expansion of the universe". :-k Even I give more credit to the big bang theory than book of genesis. Are you sure that this is valid scientific research method?
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"Stupidity gets denser in a crowd" - Old Finnish saying. [My website and My BLOG] [Nimblebrain forums] |
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For more details on this now urban scientific myth, check out Prof. Ned Wright's page on this topic. Quote:
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The fact remains that cosmological expansion is extremely well established. Like any scientific theory, it cannot be claimed as an ultimate truth. Unlike religion, science is not dogmatic. Science can "change its mind" if new evidence presents itself. But let me reiterate. The fact remains that cosmological expansion is extremely well established. As the Dictionary of Physics points out, "non-standard cosmologies are promoted by a few generally independent researchers and amateurs who disagree with foundational assumptions and so reject the idea of applying concordance criteria to their models." To say the "variable mass hypothesis" is a longshot would be a significant understatement.
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This is not semantics. It is a very fundamental aspect of science - knowing the difference between an observation and an inference/interpretation. Rather than try to characterize this as "quibbling" why not simply acknowledge the point I have repeatedly made the last few posts: Expansion is an interpretation. Spectral redshifts are the observation. You have not actually responded specifically to the various points I've made that illustrate the point. If I'm wrong make the case that Hubble's observations constitute a direct observation of expansion. Accusing me of quibbling and drawing comparisons with creationists is not a rebuttal of my point. Quote:
Its the crux of our disagreements. You keep insisting that expansion is an observation and therefore in your view any models regarding intrinsic redshifts are automatically null and void. Actually you're making two errors with that. Even if expansion was directly observed, intrinsic redshifts are not ruled out. Only non-expanding universe models would be ruled out. As I've repeatedly pointed out intrinsic redshifts may be superimposed upon expansion (gee I've even made that point in my papers). Yet in your response above you're implying that my motive for insisting that expansion is an interpretation is so that I can cast aside the Big Bang as carelessly as creationists cast away evolution. Nonsense. As I've made clear, I'm making that point because its correct. You've not responded to any of my specific points where I defend that point. You keep talking in generalities and characterizations. For example, could you address this: Quote:
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You tried to sneak it in earlier and you should have stuck with it: Expansion is an inference. It is not a subjective "interpretation"! Any Sam, Dick, or Mary can have an interpretation, but that doesn't mean they have come anywhere close to a logical conclusion based on evidence. Expansion is a direct inference based on known physical laws, as I've made clear in previous posts. I don't know what your "variable mass hypothesis" is. It's certainly not based on known physical laws. Quote:
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But again we see overreaction and attempt to assign motive. My point of bringing up Hubble’s view was two-fold and very clearly explained. First, I used his initial paper to illustrate the similarities between his assumptions and those made today (eg. Peculiar motions as the interpretation of redshift discrepancies). Second, I used his comments to illustrate that expansion is not an observation, but rather an interpretation ... [hair] or inference [/split]. Quote:
Even funnier that earlier you said this: Quote:
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"Stupidity gets denser in a crowd" - Old Finnish saying. [My website and My BLOG] [Nimblebrain forums] |
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interpret: 3. To show one's own understanding of the meaning of. Quote:
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But that is for individual galaxies being tossed around by the gravitational field of the cluster core. What the peculiar velocity explanation cannot explain is the tendency of the peculiar motions to be related to cluster morphology such that late type spirals have systematic excess redshift while early type spirals have systematic deficits of redshift. The peculiar motion interpretation also becomes problematic when you start talking about entire clusters or groups of galaxies having bulk motions greater than ~600 km s-1. There were examples in the cluster list I provided above in which the entire cluster would be required to have motions of +1200 kms- ... +1500 km s-1 ... +2200 km s-1 relative to the Hubble "flow". There is no basis for entire clusters to deviate that strongly from the Hubble flow. There are several possible explanations: 1. The Hubble Constant is larger than 70. Try 85-90 km s-1 Mpc-1. But that would definitely result in a universe younger than its oldest dated objects. 2. The cluster distances are wrong. This is a possibility that always must be examined. However the scatter on the distance determination techniques has improved with better data and multple distance calculation methods (when more than one is available)give the same distances. 3. Real peculiar motions can exceed 2000 km s-1 - and perhaps much larger. If this is the reason then we're back to my initial point that Hubble distances are "rough". The Hubble relation then becomes useless for calculating distances. There is the added caveat that if peculiar motions were the answer, then peculiar motions get larger with increasing distance. 4. Intrinsic redshifts are superimposed upon a true cosmological redshift. In this situation - which obviously the one I consider most likely - you have a Hubble constant of ~ 50-60 km s-1 Mpc-1. Intrinsic redshifts ranging from a only a few km s-1 (too small to disentangle from everything else) to thousands of km s-1 contaminate the observed redshift. Thus the observed redshift is the result of two primary superimposed components (expansion cosmological + intrinsic ... or non-expansion cosmological + intrinsic). |
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But I don't think this is a false dichotomy. Speaking here in the context of the scientific application of "observation" and "interpretation" it is possible to categorize "expansion". Observations are directly measured with instruments. Nobody disputes that spectral redshifting is an observation. Setting aside our disagreement as to how "rough" the Hubble relation is, we can say that as calculated distances increase, observed redshifts increase. Classifying this is a little tricky because the Hubble plot incorporates any assumptions built into distance calculation methods. Are those distances truly an observation? I'd say they are- but they may cross into that gray area you're hinting at. What about expansion? Is that an observation? If we "know" the universe is expanding, how do we know? Well, observations show that redshift increases with distance. But how do we get from the Hubble ploy to expansion? We must interpret the Hubble plot. A good criteria for distinguishing observation from interpretation is to ask whether or not the data could mean something else (scientifically). If it could mean something else, then its a scientific interpretation/inference. This is the case with the current reasons most think the universe expands. Keep in mind that the failure of other proposals (such as tired light) would not make expansion an observation. It would make expansion the best interpretation we have at the moment. But this is what scientists are trying to do - find and test the best interpretations of the data. Quote:
But if I made the mistake of insisting that intrinsic redshifts and expansion were incompatible, why would that lead to rejection of the entire analysis? Wouldn't an objective referee point out the interpretive mistake and insist that I fix that? When you get a report you get one of the following: 1. Outright rejection 2. Recommendation for revisions and resubmission 3. Recommendation for acceptance pending minor revisions 4. Immediate acceptance A paper should not be rejected outright for an error such as the hypothetical error we're discussing. |
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In response to Ari Jokimaki's initial question, I think that it is not necessary to have a general cosmology, but instead it is simply a useful tool. Almost everyone has some internal bias towards some specific idea at any given moment, based on their current prejudices, and this is fine if used as a means to set goals for research. This only becomes a problem when the desire to prove oneself to be correct introduces unfounded bias on that research.
In the case of Big Bang cosmology, it has become a systemic problem that scientists explain away all kinds of interesting or anomalous observations in the unfounded terms of the Big Bang. I argue that expansion of space is the most derelict of them all, as is overly apparent in Cougar's responses. Cougar appeals to authority, a classic falacy, but cannot seem to show any observational evidence of expansion seperate from Hubble Law interpretation. (I have encountered the same problem) Let me explain why assumption of interpretation as fact is a huge problem: When the distance to an object is verifiable through the plethora of techniques mentioned earlier by dgruss23, it is perfectly valid to say that for a large set of such data there is observed a very close relation between the object's apparent radial-velocity and distance. This is a well known phenomenon. When the distance to an object is NOT verifiable by such means, it is not at all valid to retroactively apply this relation to the object. The expansion interpretation of Hubble's relation (ironically known as Hubble's Law even though he did not subscribe to it) is a useful generality which may provide clues to understanding phenomena for which distance is unknown, but it cannot be relied upon for useful or meaningful data in such a retroactive application. This is specifically because the mechanism used to justify the distance relation, expansion, is one of several interpretations of radial-velocity and has no independent verification. It seems amazing to me that this independent verification has not been the central focus of astronomy for the last 80 years, for it is the crux of the argument for which almost every theory since has explained itself! Instead the search is for Dark Matter, which is several steps down the line of reasoning from expansion, and thus has even less credibility.
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A refresher of classical fallacies feels strangely appropriate (#3, #19, #21, #35, etc) I did not say 'space is not expanding,' and such a claim shows that you still have not understood what dgruss23 has been talking about. Here is the argument, as concisely as language allows: An exclusive interpretation of apparent radial-velocities as expanding spacetime is inherently wrong because it does not fully explain the observations. Quote:
So in that vein, we should examine every argument and associated consequences. There is a serious problem in putting so much weight on Big Bang cosmology, which is not exclusively supported by neither CMB, time-dilation, nor apparent radial-velocities. Again, refer to the first post of this thread for further discussion. Quote:
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Grey! You started it!
Cougar! dgruss23! Bad lads! As Ari suggested in his original post, we don’t want another discussion of the merits of Big Bang Theories. Let us simply accept that some people do not go along with the mainstream. Is their opposition to be dismissed because, finding the mainstream explanation of the available data inadequate or unsatisfactory, they are unable to put forward an alternative explanation? I am a retired psychologist. In my time, I have heard various attempts to explain the phenomenon of consciousness. I have found none of them satisfactory. Must I accept one of them, because I do not have a theory of my own? I go along generally with the sentiments expressed by Ari. But I think that cosmological theory does not occupy a privileged position in such a discussion. Some people find it very difficult to say “I do not know”. It is as if human psychology, like nature, “abhors a vacuum”. I can remember a discussion going on between some (circa) twelve year olds. There was a division of opinion over what happened when you died. Some believed that you went to heaven – or perhaps to hell if you had been really bad. Others (who had grown up under the same Christian-ish influences) decided that they believed in reincarnation. A slightly older child, asked his opinion, replied “We don’t know”. This comment was greeted dismissively by the others, who felt he had nothing to contribute to the debate. People, in general, do not evaluate evidence with unbiased intellectual rigor. I would suggest that four particular biases tend to present themselves: 1. People have a tendency to favour the cultural beliefs of their group. 2. People have a tendency to favour an explanation leading to an optimistic rather than a pessimistic outcome. 3. People have a tendency to favour an interpretation that is favourable to them or their group. 4. People have a tendency to favour decision over indecision. Now, looking at 3, I can imagine someone saying, “Well, they would, wouldn’t they!” But the point I am making is that these biases are quite unconscious. I have sat behind a spectator at a rugby match who was sure that almost every decision that the referee made which was unfavourable to his own side was wrong. I do not hesitate to state that his certainty was entirely sincere. I suggest that these biases exist because they have evolutionary value. Each of them conveys an evolutionary advantage (either at an individual level or at a societal level) over unbiased freethinking skepticism. In particular, indecision (Ari’s willingness to say he does not know or need to know) exhibits a negative correlation with survival. From an evolutionary perspective, it is best to make your mind up! Society may benefit from individuals who feel a strong desire to uphold its cultural norms and beliefs. With regard to cosmology, this would equate to belief in the Big Bang. In a previous age, someone with the cast of mind of Cougar might have played a valuable role as a member of the Inquisition. Conversely, someone (like myself ) who he has reached that degree of mental maturity that enables him to make entirely rigorous bias-free judgements may be regarded (from an evolutionary perspective) as a sociopath. BTW, “because it is there” is NOT an explanation. Anyone claim differently?
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If someone says that the lambda-CDM model has problems explaining how giant ellipticals seem to lack dark matter, that's a valid criticism, and needs to be seriously addressed (possibly by adjusting the model, or finding out that dark matter can be stripped in some manner, or by demonstrating that the observations that originally led to this thought may have alternate interpretations). If someone says that a big bang can't be right because they think the universe has to have existed forever, that's not really a substantive complaint, unless they can provide some kind of evidence that supports that claim. Quote:
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It is interesting that alternatives are not even mentioned in low level astronomy or earth science courses (my only formal experience), and that instead BB is presented as the Truth. Regardless, our understanding is constantly shaped by the wonderful research cited on BABB and elsewhere, so I find it more useful to refrain from limiting my understanding to any particular cosmology.
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Unless you are going to claim GR is wrong.... which is a whole different debate.
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Some try to tell me, thoughts they cannot defend,... - Moody Blues. Neptune- The original Dark Matter. The author feels that this technique of deliberately lying will actually make it easier for you to learn the ideas. - Donald Knuth |
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