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Old 09-February-2006, 02:59 AM
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ranugad ranugad is offline
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Default Russian Astronomer predicts Mini-Ice Age?

The 2012 crowd is already picking up on it.
UPI even seems to have picked up the story.
Looking for opinions of the Astronomer.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060206/43371626.html
Quote:
ST. PETERSBURG, February 6 (RIA Novosti) - Low solar activity could trigger a global freeze in the middle of the 21st century, a Russian astronomer said Monday.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory said temperatures would begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reached its peak, and that the coldest period would occur 15-20 years after a major solar output decline in 2035-2045.
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Old 09-February-2006, 03:20 AM
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Halcyon Dayz Halcyon Dayz is offline
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Wink Ice Age

We need to burn more fossil fuel!
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Old 09-February-2006, 05:02 AM
korjik korjik is offline
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I was under the opinion that solar activity was rather high. I have also never heared of a way to predict long term (>11 year cycle) activity on the sun.
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Old 10-February-2006, 04:56 AM
Carl_Smith Carl_Smith is offline
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Default Solar Activity and Climate

Quote:
Originally Posted by korjik
I was under the opinion that solar activity was rather high. I have also never heared of a way to predict long term (>11 year cycle) activity on the sun.
You could start here:
http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm
http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm
http://www.john-daly.com/topevnts.htm
- and look here for other relevent pages:
http://www.john-daly.com/guests.htm
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Old 12-February-2006, 02:52 PM
trinitree88 trinitree88 is offline
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Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halcyon Dayz
We need to burn more fossil fuel!
Lol...good one, Halcyon...a sense of humor is a must. Perhaps we could all have beans five days a week with no Beano, too? Methane is ~25 times as efficient as CO2.
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Old 13-February-2006, 01:42 AM
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This may be a case of a stopped clock being right twice a day. He may have the right results, for entirely the wrong reason.

There's concern that rising global temperatures is melting the Arctic ice. That's freshwater, which lowers the salinity of ocean water around it, which affects the water temperature, which affects water & air currents.

There's good evidence that in the 1500s, a change in climate led to a major drop in temperatures throughout Europe, called the Little Ice Age.

If this meltoff does happen, it could have nasty effects on today's European populace.
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Old 19-February-2006, 05:48 PM
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ranugad ranugad is offline
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I'd like to bump this thread because it has been up for 11 day with 216 views and 5 replies that did not address why I posted the link.

I was hoping to get some feedback on the astronomer.
Is he a reputable astronomer "normally"?

In other words...
I'm not looking for a debate on the merits of climate change, anthropomorphic global warming, potential of anthropomorphic global cooling or even if his prediction for this "mini ice-age" has merit. (I did appreciate the links by Carl Smith to Dr Theodor Landscheidt's work at http://www.john-daly.com/)

I could not find much on Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory and was wondering if his name was known and what his reputation is.

Maybe I should have posted this in the astronomy section, but on the chance he is not a reputable astronomer, I chose to inquire within.
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Old 19-February-2006, 06:38 PM
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Well my take on it all:

Where as the therory is sound, the match in those 178.5 year cycles isn't.

If the Sun has a major pulsation cycle then the 11 year sunspot cycle would be at a 'harmonic' of the major one. lets say he's right for a moment but it's 176 year major cycle. This would put the the 11 year cycle at the 4th harmonic of the major. 176 / 2^4. (intrestingly enough a quadradic harmonic).

This would also mean the 11 year variability only reflects a vatiation thats the same portion less then the major one. So 2% Variability... 2*2^4 or a major cycle of around 36% variability...

Which obisouly is not the case, if the sun had that much variability it would be known about, and earth would not be habitable at all during the peak end.

Now lets say the the 11 year cycle is the major, and the 176 year one is the harmonic. Then the long cycle would only add (or remove during the ebb) a 0.125 % increase on solar output.

Not enough to cause the kind of climate changes in the models.

In a pulsing body such as stars the cycles operate in harmonics, the 5 minute pulse beat of our sun is a direct harmonic of the 11 year solar cycle. If it wasn't when the pulsations clashed, stars could litterally rip thier own outer envelopes apart from the energies released during the sub sonic missmatched clashes.

Which is exactly what Wolf-Ryant type stars seem to be doing.
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