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Sic Transit Gloria Mundi |
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And all that is assuming that the star is even heading our way, which when you think about all the possible directions it could be travelling in, is very, very, very unlikely.
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...And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped. --Sir Bedevere |
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Assuming that the speed of light is 5,865,696 x 10 ^6 miles, the object is 45,752,428.8 x 10^6 miles away. The distance from the sun to Pluto is 369,595 x 10^4 miles. If we visualize this as a pythagorean triangle with the distance from the sun to Pluto as the opposite and the distance from the sun to the object as the adjacent, tanA = opposite/adjacent where tan A is the angle subtended by the object. Crunching the maths (and assuming my TI calculator works) gives us angle A is 1.4 x 10^-10 degrees. However, thats using a radius for the diameter of the solar system. To calculate the angle subtended for the object to pass within the solar system, we have to double that answer giving us 2.8 x 10^-10 degrees. Assuming the object is heading in the right plane, the chance of it heading in that angle out of the 360 degrees possible is 360/2.8 x 10^-10 or 1.285 x 10^12. In other words there is 1 chance in 1,285,000,000,000 that the object is heading on a course that would bring it within the orbit of Pluto - assuminga two-dimensional universe. However, space being three dimensional, we have to allow for the vertical as well as the horizontal plane so the actual probability is 1 chance in 1,651,225,000,000,000,000,000,000. All of which is meaningless of course because it doesn't matter how improbable it is since if it is on a collision course, it just means we were incredibly unlucky. |
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Sic Transit Gloria Mundi |
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He's talking about this LascoC3 image I think, trying to imply that the large solar prominence in the upper left is actually an outline of PX like a marshmallow over a campfire.
It's a prominence. A flare. They often make arch like shapes like that. You can even see stars through it. Compare with this one to see the same stars in Taurus to the right of the bottom of the Pleiades, some of which was visible THROUGH the "anomaly". D. |
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It is comforting to read replies from such sane minds and based in sound knowledge. For some of us who do not have the background you guys, it can be all too easy to get caught up in the doom. But what I cannot understand is when I read for example one guy saying on the "God..." discussion that he finds the images encouraging that PX is nigh. They are willing it to be true.
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Well look at this way, if you have staked so much of your emotion and well being on something and then it didn't come true, it would tear you apart. Add to that most of these people feel exceedingly insignificant in today's society and here's a promise of being the new "lords of creation" so to speak. I'm willing to bet that they have to much vested in this and it will take some time to let it go.
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