Kinda long sorry.

All this talk about earthquake ‘upticks’ finally bugged me enough to do a bit of research. I went to the USGS website and found the NEIC page listing previous earthquake statistics, amount by magnitude. I discovered that they have a column set up for 2003 already. (I’m assuming it’s fairly well up to date.) A few extra minutes of digging could have confirmed it. But as I’m at work, I didn’t want to spend too much time cruising around the web looking for how many 7.0+ we’ve had this year. NEIC says 5 and that sounds about right.

I then took the numbers and plugged them into Excel. Using some fairly basic math, I worked out how that would trend over 12 months. Yeah a really bad way to forecast earthquakes, but it gives a good ‘shot in the dark’ guesstimate.

Just to let you see what I did let’s take the 7.0-7.9 magnitude quakes.
NEIC says 5, again I didn’t try to confirm it as I am a little pressed for time and it sounded about right.
It’s May, so we’re 5 months into 2003.
5 earthquakes divided by 5 months = 1 quake a month on average.
Times this by 12 months (in a year) = 12 7.0-7.9 magnitude quakes this year.
Looking over the statistics: there were 13 last year, 15 in 2001 etc. As a matter of fact only 1991 had less at 12 and that was 11.
I ran this through for 3.0 and up. Interestingly enough every single category was less, some significantly so.

OK now for a disclaimer. This is defiantly not a way to predict how many earthquakes we’re going to have. However, that wasn’t my point. My point was to check to see if there has been an increase in activity this year as so claimed due to PX. And from what I’ve see it’s not. If we were to have had ‘normal’ earthquake activity the first part of the year with a ‘sudden uptick’ [I love that word, uptick! uptick! uptick!] recently, then the numbers should have reflected it somewhere. But all I can see is normal activity with a possible decrease this year. Of course this also leaves out any ‘disinformation’ that USGS is doing by ‘leaving out’ earthquakes, but a simple search of any media outlet would quickly return how many we’ve had this year with their love of reporting tragedies like that.

And now for the table (I hope this works):
I hope this can help reassure anybody who's worried about an increase [uptick!] in earthquake activity.

References:
USGS
NEIC site where I got all this info.

[Edited to fix the table]

I just posted this in another thread, but I think it applies here as well:

A big problem is that, for the average uninformed person, random means "spaced out". To them, clusters of quakes (or anything else for that matter) seem non-random. But in fact, this is exactly opposite of the truth. If every event was spaced out evenly, then it wouldn't be random any more, it would be rhythmic. True randomness almost demands clustering. It's just when you look at long term results, the clusters will be spaced out more or less evenly.


So, except for the aftershocks following a big quake, seeing a bunch of quakes happening in quick succession is really more of a sign of true randomness than some common cause.

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...And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped. --Sir Bedevere

Correct, and that's what I was trying to point out. While it suddenly feels like we're having increased earthquake activity, we're not. You can't take a short segment of time and expect it to correctly identify trends. Poeple tend to focus on actions and forget about inactions. Nothing happens for months and it's not noticed, a couple quakes and suddenly, 'boy we're having a lot of these recently.' Without taking the time to think back over the past few months of nothing. (I'm talking in general.)

Now if three or four more 7+'s start firing off with a few 8's then I'll start to worry. But for now I'll worry more about the maniac's I have to deal with on the road.

Have you ever noticed that, when you buy a new car that you think is kinda neat and original, suddenly there seem to be TONS of them on the road overnight?

Strange how it always seems like there's more of something when we're suddenly sensitive to them instead of just letting them pass in the other lane without a second glance.

If you go looking for earthquakes, you're going to notice earthquakes...and hey! there seem to be more now than when I wasn't looking at all! wow!

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~Brad - Astropaparazzo
http://signaturedigitalimages.com

rather than explain earthquake clusters or deny quake frequency or explain statistics, why not demand from PXers an explanation of the causal link between PX and earthquakes? they're obviously independent events (assuming, arguendo, that PX exists) and the mechanisms that cause earthquakes are terran, even if not fully understood.

or at least ask them which quakes are caused by PX and are not attributable to normal plate tectonic activity, and how they base their distinction.

why even let the PXers assert that earthquake activity is relevant? seems like the opposition frequently plays into their game, and any discusion that lets the PXers casually assume a causal link without challenging it already has a strike or two against.

The notion that the frequency of earthquakes is increasing isn't just a PX believer meme. Judging from the stuff on Godlike, it's getting popular among apocalypse groupies in general, who are hungering for anything that can be interpreted as a sign that the @#$% is about to come down on our heads.

Question the assertion that "earthquakes are increasing and it's proof of Planet X" by questioning the association between earthquakes and PX and you will just induce the remaining PXers to take cover temporarily while you're caught in a storm of covering fire from other apocalyptoids asserting that "it's because of the solar flares, or the sunspots, or HAARP, or the Earth Goddess..."

Captain Kidd's approach of asking just how the data indicate a trend, particularly in the light of the amount of year-to-year variation the records show, seems to me to be both more general and more of a striking at the root of the matter.

It also calls for thought and analysis instead of the usual regurgitating of piles of numbers and anecdotes, which strikes at the weak spot of the "Earth changes" brigade. :wink:

edited for grammar

The main reason people are alarmed is because they are just starting to follow the number of earthquakes, so they have no previous knowledge to compare to the current trend.

For example: As of 5/29/03, total US quakes (per USGS statistics) for the last 5 months (from 1/1/03-5/26/03) -941
Total US earthquakes for the past WEEK - 526

Next week it will probably fall back in the 100 range, but the PXers will overlook that.

Sometimes graphs are good.

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I must not PX. PX is the mind-killer. I will face my PX. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the PX has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

Yeah like that. Well more along the lines of a line graph with 2003 Forecast to show the drop. But I was at work, in a hurry and don't have a site to base the images on currently. :wink: